GW30 – Who Will You Choose!?

GW30 – Who Will You Choose!?

Posted by: @FPL_D5L

I’m going to be exploring the best options for captaincy for Gameweek 30.

📌 Results of the Poll

📌 Best Captain vs Decent Differentials

📌 Which Fixtures Should Be Targeted?

📌 Who’s Winning The Arm Band?

📌 Conclusion

Results of The Poll

Ok so as you can see out of Kane, Bamford & Bruno Fernandes, Kane is easily in the lead with 57% of the vote. As for the other comments, there are some interesting suggestions from the FPL Community. The Following stats will be sourced from @FFscout.

Who’s The Best Captain?

Kane vs Son

Underlying stats for the last 4 GW’s ⤵️

Fixture: vs NEW (a)

G: 4 ↔️ 0
A: 2 ↔️ 3
xG: 3.58 ↔️ 0.52
Shots in the Box: 10 ↔️ 3
Chances Created: 6 ↔️ 10
Big Chances Created: 2 ↔️ 6

Kane (£11.6m) leads the xG by some way as you can see & has a great case for the armband. He’s in super form; throughout the international break he’s scored 2 goals in 2 matches. Up against Newcastle (a),  Kane’s record against the Magpies is as follows: 11 matches played, W5, D1, L5, G5 & A1. This isn’t such a bad record, only one concern would be is his last goal against the Magpies was in the 14/15 season in a 1:3 win. Nevertheless, this is Kane in top form, as in the last 4 GWs he’s scored 4 goals & registered 2 assists, making him a worthy candidate.

Looking at Kane’s trusty teammate Son (£9.4m) who was carrying a hamstring injury before the break, we will find out more about his recovery when we hear Mourinho’s press conference. Looking at his stats against Kane, it is easy to ignore Son for the armband. His record against Newcastle is: 9 matches, W5, D1, L3, G2, A1. Not very appealing… but if you want to be a little risky & gain rank then Son could be your guy. He could be a great differential going into GW30 as his goal involvement rate is crazy high this season and we certainly can’t completely ignore him.

Raphinha vs Bamford

Underlying stats for the last 4 GW’s ⤵️

vs SHU

G: 1 ↔️ 1
A: 0 ↔️ 1
XG: 1.50 ↔️ 1.20
Shots in the Box: 8 ↔️ 7
CC: 11 ↔️ 3
BCC: 1 ↔️ 1

These are two players who have been mentioned a lot over the international break as they come up against a poor form SHU (H). Comparing the two, there isn’t a lot between them. Raphinha (£5.7m) is the most creative player in the Premier League in the last 5 GWs. In the last 5 GWs, he top’s for Key Passes (3.5), Big Chances (0.8) & xA (0.34) per game. Raphinha is creating many chances every GW & is heavily involved inside the box.

Bamford (£6.7m) I was very happy with his 22pts in GW29! I asked my wife a question 5 mins before the deadline: “Charlotte! Kane or Bamford captain?”  and thankfully I got the answer Bamford! So again for me, in GW30 he’s a great shout for the armband. Bamford scored in GW3 against SHU, getting 8pts in total, played a full 90 mins & I wouldn’t be surprised if he adds to his tally in this match. In the last 6 appearance’s Bamford has scored 2 goals, created 2 Big Chances, 5 Big Chances, & a decent 35 Penalty Touches. In my opinion good stats going into this weeks game. He’s fully rested after not being picked for the England squad, so I’m sure he’s ready to pounce on a poor SHU team. Only one negative for Bamford, he’s shooting less per 90 (2.5) & has a lower XG per 90 (0.33) than earlier in the season.

Underlying stats for the last 4 GW’s ⤵️

vs BHA & vs FUL

G: 1 ↔️ 0
A: 0 ↔️ 2
XG: 1.26 ↔️ 0.16
Shot in the Box: 2 ↔️ 2
CC: 11 ↔️ 9
BCC: 0 ↔️ 2

Looking at these two, both players have decent attacking potential, but of course the favourite is the trusty Bruno Fernandes (£11.5) who is a wise pick for the armband. United’s talisman has been involved in 28 goals in the league already & that represents a number which no midfielder across Europe’s top five leagues can better. Bruno averages (7.2) points per game at Old Trafford in his last 14 home matches.

Jack Grealish (£7.5m). He’s back and ready to play after missing the last 6 GW’s with an injury, with managers expecting him to feature against Fulham (H). He is Villa’s talisman & with him back in the team he’s going to be a force to be reckoned with. He is heavily involved in every goal Villa score, and he has created the highest number of chances (75) and big chances (14) in the league. He has been one of the most consistent players across the whole season. A nice differential & could be a dark horse for the armband.

Which Fixtures To Target?

The Whipping Boys! These are the underlying stats in the last 6 GW’s 📊

Leeds vs Sheffield United

This game has the potential to be a thrilling game for Leeds as in the last 6 GWs SHU are second for the most goals conceded (13), 1st for big chances conceded (24), 1st for xGC (14.01) and 3rd for goal attempts conceded (94). In the past 5 GWs, SHU have only scored 1 goal which is the joint lowest alongside West Brom. There is strong clean sheet potential for Leeds and you would fancy Leeds to score big against one of the worst defenses in the league. Leeds have won 2 of their last 3 league games against the Blades, having only won once in the 11 games before that (D3 L6).

Newcastle vs Tottenham

These are the underlying stats for the Newcastle’s last 6 GWs: xGC (8.86), 3rd highest for Goals Conceded (10) & in the top 10 for Big Chances Conceded (13). For Kane, Son or Bale owners, this is a tasty fixture to target. Newcastle have lost five of their last six Premier League home games against Spurs (W1), more than they lost in their previous 26 games against them in top-flight (W13, D9 & L4). Tottenham have won their last three Premier League games against Newcastle, ever since a 1-5 loss on the final day of the 15/16 season.

Chelsea vs West Brom

In the last 6 GWs, WBA have an xGC (6.60) to Chelsea’s xGC (2.56); a big difference between the two. However, WBA have only conceded 3 goals in their last 6 matches, which is the 3rd best in the league. Therefore, this game might not be that thrilling. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last seven matches against West Brom (W5 D2) and the Baggies are winless in their last 15 away matches against Chelsea (D3 L12) (the last time they won an away game vs Chelsea was in 1978!). I’m going for a clean sheet for Chelsea, bringing my attention to the likes of Mendy, Rudiger & Azpilicueta.

Who’s Winning The Arm Band?

1️⃣ Kane ©️

2️⃣ Raphinha

3️⃣ Bamford

4️⃣ Bruno Fernandes

5️⃣ Grealish

Conclusion

Okay! I think Harry Kane will be the ‘effective ownership pick’ once again, but regardless of effective ownership he is justified as the first choice for captain. He’s in brilliant form and facing an average Newcastle defense. In 2nd & 3rd place are Raphinha & Bamford, both up against a very poor defense who are leaking goals; I like these boys. As it stands, Bamford is my captain, with Raphinha knocking on the door (I may ask the wife which to pick again!). Bruno’s 4th place is reasonable and interesting. We know how reliable he can be & if the 1st, 2nd & 3rd picks blank then there’s some decent rank to be gained from a Bruno captaincy.

There are some players we haven’t mentioned yet who deserve a mention and the comments on my poll were very interesting. We had the Chelsea assets mentioned by @FPLCasuals; he’s looking at Alonso which isn’t such a bad shout if he starts, I’ve never captained a defender but I must admit this season has proven Captaining defenders isn’t such a bad shout, especially for the likes of Man City & Chelsea’s excellent defensive record this season. @Bez_FPL is looking at Mount, a nice differential & @FPL_Levy says he is going for Jack Harrison! Nice one. Many comments mentioned was Kane, Raphinha & Chelsea’s defense, mixed with Attackers such as Mount & Havertz. Good luck to you guys!

We can’t forget KDB; he’s had a good international break & City continue with their incredible dominance, making him a good punt for sure. I also like DCL as an outsider; his stats aren’t great but he is up against Crystal Palace side who in their last 6 matches have an xGC of 9.34, & kept 3 clean sheets. I’m sure he’ll get at least one decent chance.

So there you have it. I hope this article helps! I haven’t made my mind up yet on my Captain pick but it’s definitely going to be one of the Leeds boys.

Good luck with GW30!