GW5 Top Three Captaincy Picks
@FantasyFootyFix will cover the stats below.
Welcome back to “The FPL Way Captaincy Picks” article where I will be discussing the Top 3 Fantasy Premier League captain options for the Gameweek ahead, as voted for by the FPL Community captaincy poll on Twitter. I will also be adding the “worthy mentions” player list ahead of the Gameweek.
Let’s have a quick reminder on how we did in GW4, our top 3 most voted had decent returns, returning an overall 34 FPL points. All three players returned, Ronaldo and Lukaku outscored Salah with their two goals to Salah’s one. Looking ahead to Gameweek 5 we have the same Top 3 players battling it out for the captaincy. Let’s move forward and take a look at that all-important captaincy decision.
Romelu Lukaku- Chelsea
£11.5m /26.7% Owned
1. Romelu Lukaku sits in 3rd place with 5% of the vote.
The Belgium international had a fine game against Aston Villa, he managed to get on the score sheet twice and returned a fine 13 pointer for his 26.7% owners.
Below you will see two graphic’s showing a heat map of Lukaku’s touches and the shot’s against Aston Villa. For a player who scored two goals he wasn’t exactly heavily involved in Chelsea’s attacking play, only (25) touches throughout the 90 minutes. The graphic on the right shows his two shots both converted into goals from inside the box, my point making is regarding these maps, Lukaku doesn’t need to be in the game and have numerous shots to find the net. He’s one of the best finishers in the game and when he gets his chance, he will find his target.
Cristiano Ronaldo- Manchester United
£12.5M / 37.6% Owned
2. Cristiano Ronaldo sits in 2nd place with 20% of the vote.
He’s back!.. The Portuguese international had a fantastic second debut for Manchester United, Ronaldo returned a decent 13 pointer, scoring two goals for his 37.6% owners. his first goal came from a goalkeeping error that provided a simple tap in, and the second was just pure class, fantastic movement, pace and a super finish.
Below you will see a number of key graphics of Ronaldo’s movement throughout the Newcastle match. I’m basically pointing out some examples of how he dragged players out of position in the final third, and his ability to cut inside the opponent’s defence.
As we know, Newcastle is known to play very compactly, well organised and sits deep. But for Ronaldo he managed to open up a very compact defence. Perhaps this is something we should not overlook throughout the season when it comes to teams that play defensive tactics. As mentioned in the last article, he loves playing against bottom-half teams in the league. Teams who sit deep aren’t a problem for Ronaldo and this game was a prime example.
Mohammad Salah- Liverpool
£12.5m / 54.2% Owned
3. Mohammad Salah sits in 1st place as your favourite captain with 73% of the vote.
The Egyptian International never fails us when it comes to consistency. Salah has played all 4 matches and averages 9.5 points per game. Liverpool won 3-0 against Leed’s on Sunday evening, started off very lively, but it was The Reds who was the stronger team. For those FPL Managers who captained Salah would be pleased for a return but would be thinking he should have had more than just one goal.
Below you will see stats comparisons between Salah and Mane against Leeds United.
There was one man who was very busy at goal and that was Sadio Mane. 10 shots with 8 inside the box and 2 on target. As I mentioned above, Salah was unlucky not to get more than just one return, he had (4) attempted assists, if Mane had his shooting boots on we will be talking about Salah being the highest returner for Gameweek 4. Liverpool also had a goal disallowed, Salah put in a fine cross from just outside the box for Thiago to find the net with his head, a close offside call.
Top 3 Candidates Projected Points from GW5-10:
We have to take into consideration that Cristiano Ronaldo has only played 1 game. I can however provide his Overall Projected Points for the next 6 Gameweeks (33.7). If we look at the candidates Gameweek 5 projected points you will see that Salah (7.0) is projected to get more returns than Ronaldo (6.6) and Lukaku (4.1).
Below you will see Three Touch Heat Maps from the Top 3 candidates for Gameweek 4:
The player with the most touches was Ronaldo, very active in the final third of the pitch, (63) touches compared to Salah’s (49) and Lukaku’s (25).
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Expected Goal Involvements from Gameweek 1-4:
🟢 Ronaldo- Expected Goal Involvements (1.5)
🟢 Lukaku- Expected Goal Involvements (2.9)
🟢 Salah- Expected Goal Involvements (4.0)
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Expected Goal’s from Gameweek 1-4:
🟢 Ronaldo- (1.5)
🟢 Lukaku- (2.4)
🟢 Salah- (2.6)
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the biggest Chances from Gameweek 1-4:
🟢 Salah- (4)
🟢 Lukaku- (3)
🟢 Ronaldo- (2)
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Shots inside the box from Gameweek 1-4:
🟢 Ronaldo- (4)
🟢 Salah- (14)
🟢 Lukaku- (11)
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Goals from Gameweek 1-4:
🟢 Ronaldo- 2
🟢 Salah- 3
🟢 Lukaku- 3
Looking at these stats you will notice Salah edges slightly for the best-attacking stats, we have to point out that he has played more games than Lukaku and Ronaldo.
Also, we shouldn’t overlook Ronaldo, for someone who’s played only 1 game his numbers are decent comparing to the candidates.
Fixtures To Target:
Below you will see a table comparing the top 3 candidates teams against, we will be looking at their Defence xG Conceded for the last 4 Gameweeks:
|Team||Big Chances Conceded||Goal Attempts Conceded||Goal Attempts In The Box Conceded||Goal Attempts Outside The Box Conceded||Goals Conceded||Minutes Per xG Conceded||xG Conceded|
|West Ham (A)||5||42||29||13||5||77.2||4.91|
|Crystal Palace (H)||3||43||25||18||5||105.6||3.57|
Home Advantage for 20/21 and 21/22 seasons:
Below you will see how the power of the fans in the 2021/22 season has improved for the Home teams. I do think targeting the home fixtures for captaincy is a very good and wise Strategy.
|Goals Per Game||1.35||1.34|
|Shots Per Game||12.81||11.38|
|Pens Per Game||0.17||0.16|
|Clean Sheet Per Game||0.30||0.29|
|Wins Per Game||0.38||0.40|
|Goals Per Game||1.68||1.34|
|Shots Per Game||14.08||12.23|
|Pens Per Game||0.10||0.15|
|Clean Sheet Per Game||0.38||0.28|
|Wins Per Game||0.48||0.30|
Tottenham vs Chelsea – Tottenham have the worst defensive stats conceded amongst the two clubs. Chelsea is unbeaten in the last 5 Premier League games against Tottenham and Chelsea haven’t lost a game in their last 9 matches. Tottenham have lost four of their last six Premier League London derby matches (Won 2), as many as they had in their previous 18 such games combined. Chelsea has won each of their last five away league London Derbies, they’ve never won six in a row on the road before. Despite Lukaku only managing 2 shots in his last game, he proves to be very clinical at goal when he gets his chance.
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace- Crystal Palace has the best defensive stats between the two teams. Does this mean the most voted player for the captaincy Mo Salah is not the best candidate? One thing we need to note is he has 7 goals from the previous 8 games vs Crystal Palace, 16 shots, 13 inside the box and 3 goals to his name in the opening 4 Gameweeks and he will be playing at Anfield. Liverpool has won their last eight Premier League games against Palace, scoring 24 goals and conceding just five. Liverpool is on the longest current league unbeaten run in the premier league, going 14 games without defeat. (Won 11 and Draw 3).
West Ham vs Manchester United- The Hammers are also not in the greatest position in regards to their defensive stats conceded but definitely no pushovers. West Ham has won two of their last six premier league games against Man United (Draw one and lost 3), though they are winless in three against The Red Devils.
Manchester United are unbeaten in 28 Premier League games, (Won 4 and Draw 3), their longest run in the competition. They have conceded only 19 goals and 13 clean sheets in the process.
Ronaldo doesn’t need an invitation to take a shot, his return was marginally impressive, even though it will be a tougher matchup for the Portuguese, I do fancy United to win and he will be heavily involved in the mix-up.
Mohammed Salah on 73% is a massive vote for the captaincy, after analyzing all the candidates attacking stats, he’s way up there and for an understandable favourite for Gameweek5 captain. The other two have their worth calm. I think we will see all three players return in their fixture, question is, who’s going to get the most returns.
I’ll leave that to you. Good Luck Fantasy Managers and have a fabulous weekend.