GW5 Top Three Captaincy Picks
@FantasyFootyFix will cover the stats below.
Welcome back to “The FPL Way Captaincy Picks” article where I will be discussing the Top 3 Fantasy Premier League captain options for the Gameweek ahead, as voted for by the FPL Community captaincy poll on Twitter. I will also be adding the “worthy mentions” player list ahead of the Gameweek.
Let’s have a quick reminder on how we did in GW5, our top 3 most voted had decent returns, returning an overall 18 FPL points. Cristiano Ronaldo and Mohammed Salah both got returns, as for our third pick, Romelu Lukaku only managed 2pts. Looking ahead to Gameweek 6 we have the same Top 3 players battling it out for the captaincy. Let’s move forward and take a look at that all-important captaincy decision.
Gameweek 6 Captaincy Poll:
Michail Antonio – West Ham United
£7.9m / 33.5% Owned
Michail Antonio will be my Differential pick for Gameweek 6.
There have been many managers in the Twitter community questioning whether Antonio is worthy for the number one captain. I will be highlighting and comparing the top three candidates. As you can see above, The Jamaican has 9.8 Points Per Game throughout this season. Coming back from his suspension after being red-carded in Gameweek 4 in a 0-0 draw against Southampton. It will be a day to forget, he only managed 2 shots at goal, both inside the box which is his least amount of shots all season, Antonio averages 4.5 shots and 2.0 shots in the box this season.
The Talisman Antonio did manage to play in their Europa League game against Dinamo Zagreb, he set West Ham on their way inside 21 minutes, pouncing on a loose back pass to score the Hammers’ first major European goal since 1999.
Mohammad Salah- Liverpool
£12.6m / 57% Owned
2. Mohammad Salah sits in 2nd place as your favourite captain with 39% of the vote.
With no surprise, Mohammed Salah is amongst the top three candidates once more. The Egyptian King was the most voted for the captaincy in Gameweek 4 and he didn’t disappoint as he returned a nice 12 pointer.
Salah is now averaging 10.0 points per game which is the highest amongst all the Fantasy Football players in the game. Liverpool had a solid game, dominated and created many chances. 25 shots at goal and 10 on target. The Reds expected goal’s for this game was (2.88) which lived up to that expectation as they won 3-0.
Below you will see a graphic where Mohammed Salah had the most shot’s in the game, five were inside the box which, makes that a total of (19) shots inside the box, second-best in the league just slightly below his teammate Sadio Mane (21)
Cristiano Ronaldo- Manchester United
£12.7m / 46.6% Owned
3. Cristiano Ronaldo sits in 1st place with 54% of the vote.
Cristiano Ronaldo is amongst the top three candidates for the second time running. He was the most voted for the captaincy in Gameweek 4 and he didn’t disappoint as he returned a nice 12 pointer.
Ronaldo was very busy throughout the game as you can see on his heat map below, with nice dark shades where he very was active inside the penalty box, a total of (13) touches which was the highest in Gameweek 5. The Portuguese international managed to get on the scoring sheet in a dramatic 2-1 win for Manchester United. That’s his third goal in two matches in the Premier League.
Perhaps Ronaldo was unfortunate not to get more than one return, he provided seven shots inside the box, five on target and he averaged 12.9 Minutes per goal attempt. All three key stats was the highest in gameweek5.
Top 3 Candidates Projected Points from GW6-10:
We have to take into consideration that Cristiano Ronaldo has only played 2 games. I can however provide his Overall Projected Points for the next 6 Gameweeks (34.2). If we look at the candidates Gameweek 6 projected points you will see that Ronaldo is way ahead with (8.1). That means that Salah is just behind by (6.2) and Antonio (5.7).
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Big Chances Created from Gameweek 1-5:
🟢 Ronaldo – 0
🟢 Antonio – 3
🟢 Salah – 3
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Big Chances Gameweek 1-5:
🟢 Ronaldo – 5
🟢 Antonio – 6
🟢 Salah – 5
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Expected FPL Involvements from Gameweek 1-5:
🟢 Ronaldo – 3.4
🟢 Antonio – 4.8
🟢 Salah – 4.8
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the FPL Involvements from Gameweek 1-5:
🟢 Ronaldo – 3
🟢 Antonio – 8
🟢 Salah – 7
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Shots inside the box from Gameweek 1-5:
🟢 Ronaldo – 3
🟢 Antonio – 4
🟢 Salah – 4
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Minutes Per Shot from Gameweek 1-5:
🟢 Ronaldo – 13.8
🟢 Antonio – 19.8
🟢 Salah – 20.5
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Expected Goal’s from Gameweek 1-5:
🟢 Ronaldo – 3.3
🟢 Antonio – 3.3
🟢 Salah – 3.2
I have pointed out some charts which compare the top 3 candidates. We have to remind ourselves that Ronaldo has only played 2 Gameweeks, his numbers are increasing nicely, for someone who’s played such a short period it’s very impressive. You will notice that all three candidates have very equal numbers.
Fixtures to Target:
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Big Chances Conceded from Gameweek 1-5:
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Shots Conceded In The Box from Gameweek 1-5:
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Goals Conceded from Gameweek 1-5:
The three-bar charts I have created shows key Defensive Conceded Stats which Highlight’s Leeds United as the team to target. For Shot’s in the box (62) they are the joint top worst with Leicester in the league, then we go to Goal’s Conceded (12) which is third-worst below Norwich and Newcastle. Finishing off with Big Chances Conceded (13) puts them fourth-worst in the league. All Highlights as a Positive for those who want to captain Antonio.
Areas of the Pitch being conceded:
Below you will see two tables comparing defensive stats conceded from Gameweek 1-5:
|Team||Big Chances Conc||Goal Attempts Conceded||Goal Attempts In The Box Conceded||Goal Attempts Outside The Box Conceded||Goals Conceded||Minutes Per xG Conceded||xG Conceded|
|Teams||Chances Conceded on the Left Flank||Chances Conceded in the Centre||Chances Conceded on the Right Flank|
I have added a new table to the mix, data where you can identify areas of the pitch where teams have conceded the most chances. Looking at this table you will see that Brentford has conceded the least chances on the left flank and the centre, which means that could limit Salah’s ability to create chances, but on the right looks to be a weak point, positive for Mane owners or even Robertson.
Villa isn’t far off from conceded the least chances through the centre, which could be a problem for Ronaldo. Then we go to Leeds United, their left side and centre are where they are conceding the most, good news for Antonio and Benraham as we know they link up very well together.
Below you will see a table comparing the top 3 candidates teams against, we will be looking at their Defence xG Conceded for the last 4 Gameweeks:
Leeds vs West Ham United
Leeds lost to West Ham last season to a 2-1 defeat, they’ve never lost a consecutive home league games against the Hammers in their history. Leeds have conceded five goals in their two home Premier League games this season, as many as they had in their previous nine at Elland Road. Michail Antonio has never scored in nine previous League games against Leeds. Since the start of last season, West Ham have more goals from crosses than any other side in the Premier League (20). Leeds are without a win so far this season, drawn 3 and lost 2.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Manchester United have won 18 of their last 21 home league games against Aston Villa (draw 2 and lost one). Failing to score on just one occasion. Aston Villa has picked up just one win in their last 45 Premier League games against The Red Devils, (draw 11 and lost 22). Manchester United are the highest scorers in the Premier League so far this season with 13 goals. with an expected goals total of eight, The Red Devils are overperforming their xG more than any other side. Ronaldo has the shortest average shot distance from goal of the 23 players to have had at least 10 open play shots in the Premier League this season, 12.6 metres- excluding headers).
Brentford vs Liverpool
Liverpool is on the longest current unbeaten run in English league football, 15- Won twelve and draw 3. Brentford striker has the most goals (2), goal involvements (3), joint-most shots (12) and joint-most chances created (7) for the Bees in the Premier League. Liverpool has lost just one of their last 27 Premier League games against promoted sides, won 22 and draw 4. Brentford has been very decent defensively this season, Conceding only (2) goals in 5 games, fourth-best in the League. If we look at their chances conceded on the left (11), centre (11) and right (21) which is very good compared to the other teams in the League, Salah, Mane and Jota may find it hard to get through The Bees defensive. Let’s just remind ourselves, Brentford hasn’t played against a team with such quality as Liverpool.
By analysing all the data I have provided, if we look at the fixtures individually you will notice that Leeds United have the worst Defence in terms of stats concerned, then you obviously look at Antonio to target those big returns, and by looking at his attacking stats he compares very nicely to the two Premium candidates.
Then you look at Mohammed Salah, again by looking through the data I have provided, Brentford’s defence is the best amongst the three opponents. So does that mean Salah isn’t the ideal captain? I don’t think there’s a decent point you could make to go against salah, he’s a proven consistent machine, averages 10 points per game and the fact that Brentford hasn’t faced a team such as Liverpool’s quality also says to me he’s a worthy captain.
Then finally the most voted captain for Gameweek 6, voted by 57% of the Twitter community. Manchester United is overperforming their expected goals this season, that’s due to Ronaldo’s return. Ronaldo’s attacking stats were impressive throughout Gameweek 5, topping shots inside the box (7) and getting (3) big chances. I don’t see this changing throughout, his numbers will improve, and like I have said in many of my articles, the home fixture is a strong value point.
Who will be your Captain for Gameweek 6?
I’ll leave that to you. Good luck and have a great weekend.