GW9 Top Two Captaincy Picks
@FantasyFootyFix will cover the stats below.
Welcome back to “The FPL Way Captaincy Picks” article where I will be discussing the Top 2 Fantasy Premier League Captain options for the Gameweek ahead, as voted for by the FPL Community captaincy poll on Twitter. I will also be adding the “worthy mentions” player list ahead of the Gameweek.
Let’s get a quick reminder on how we did in GW8. Our top 3 most voted assets had a solid Gameweek, two returns out of three. Heung-Min Son and Mohamed Salah scored a combined 22 Fantasy Points. Once again, we saw another world-class goal from The Egyptian King himself, along with Son who has now scored twice in his last three games. Looking ahead to Gameweek nine, let’s move forward and take a look at that all-important captaincy decision.
View the top captain and vice-captain picks for your chosen gameweek, overall and for the top 1000 teams.
£12.8m / 64%
Mohammed Salah sits in 1st place as your favourite captain with 64% of the vote.
It was another master class performance by the Liverpool star man. Mohamed Salah got himself on the score sheet and produced an assist. Liverpool won 5-0 against Watford, Claudia Raneri’s first game in charge ended miserably. It was a weak performance from The Hornets as they only provided six shots at goal with two on target and they went into this game without a clean sheet (0.06). The rampant Reds stretched their unbeaten run to 18 games in all competitions.
Liverpool were the dominant team from start to finish. They had a total of 19 shots, 8 on target and their expected goals were (2.87). Mohamed Salah had 5 shots, 4 inside the box and his xG was (4.1). The Egyptian’s goal takes him level with former Chelsea striker Didier Drogba as the highest-scoring African player in Premier League history with 104 goals.
Salah is top for the most Fantasy Points (83). He averages 10.4 points per game which is an incredible tally at this point of the season.
Below you will see a heat map and stats between Gameweek 1-8
Jamie Vardy – Leicester City
£10.6m / 19.2 %
2. Jamie Vardy sits in 2nd place as your favourite captain with 19.2% of the vote.
Jamie Vardy keeps on scoring and FPL Managers have kept avoiding the Leicester striker, but I don’t think we can ignore any longer. Another impressive display by The Englishman, his work rate is Second to none, and he fully deserved his goal. That’s now 7 goals in 8 matches, he has 56 fantasy points which is top in the forward bracket and averages 7.0 points per game.
Below you will see a heat map and stats between Gameweek 1-8
Top 2 Candidates Projected Points from GW9-14:
Below you will see the top 2 Overall Projected Points for the next 7 Gameweeks. As you can see Romelu Lukaku leads Gameweek 9 for the most points (6.0) but he’s now ruled out for this weekend, Mo Salah hits third-best with (5.6). As there are many managers considering picking The Englishman and The Egyptian king, one man who sits in In-between is Antonio (5.7), could he become a worthy candidate?
Let’s point out some stand out differential’s, De Bruyne is projected (5.5) which is (0.1) less than the leading captain. De Bruyne has come back from injury with some form under his belt. Two returns in the last two games, (19) fantasy points overall. Just above him is Jamie Vardy with 33.4 points overall for the next 6 Gameweeks, coming into this with a projected point of (5.6). Vardy has 56 fantasy points in his last 8 matches, which makes him the highest playing forward in the Fantasy League.
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Big Chances from GW 1-8:
🔴 Salah – 9
🔵 Vardy – 0
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Expected FPL Involvements from GW 1-8:
🔴 Salah – 7.7
🔵 Vardy – 4.4
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Minutes Per Shot from GW 1-8:
🔴 Salah – 21.8
🔵 Vardy – 30.9
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Goals from Inside Box from GW 1-8:
🔴 Salah – 7
🔵 Vardy – 7
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Expected Goals from GW 1-8:
🔴 Salah – 5.1
🔵 Vardy – 3.7
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Goals from GW 1-8:
🔴 Salah – 7
🔵 Vardy – 7
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Shot’s Inside Box from GW 1-8:
🔴 Salah – 28
🔵 Vardy- 21
Looking at the data above, Salah is ahead of Vardy for the best attacking stats. He’s had a brilliant start to the season and I don’t expect it to change anytime soon. We have a very interesting choice to make. It’s definitely not straightforward. The way Brentford attacked Chelsea last week did impress me. The negative part is how much space they left behind in their defence, which none of the Chelsea players targeted, whereas Vardy will thrive if he gets the chance.
My worthy mentions picks is back and for good reason, with Lukaku being ruled out this week, it now allows a differential captaincy an opportunity for gameweek 9.
The table below cover attacking stats from the last 4 game weeks:
Son (£10.1m / 15.2%)
The South Korean has been in good form. Last 3 matches, he’s returned a total 26 fantasy points. Up against West Ham away who have been pretty solid throughout the start of the season, The Hammers have conceded 10 big chances which are 5th best in the league and provided only two clean sheets in 8 matches.
Kevin De Bryune (£11.9m / 3.3%)
The Belgium International is back after a long period out due to injury, 22 fantasy points in his last 3 matches and he has 3 big chances in his last 4 matches. Interesting fixture coming they face Brighton away. Brighton aren’t push overs and they prove that by being 3rd best for goals conceded, 3rd best for expected shot per min (93.7) and again 3rd best in the league for expected goals conceded (8.11).
Jimenez (£7.6m / 7.1%)
There were some disappointing owners last week after Jimenez was benched, but he has a tasty fixture against Leeds who have had a difficult start to the season. They’ve conceded (84) shots inside the box, 4th worst and conceded (15) goals, 3rd worst in the league. Jimenez has (15) shots inside the box, best amounts the worthy mentions.
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Big Chances Conceded for opponents:
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most xG Conceded for opponents:
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Minutes Per xG Conceded for opponents:
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Goals Conceded for opponents:
The four-bar charts I have created show key Defensive Conceded Stats for the opponents games only, which Highlight’s Manchester United as the team to target. For Big Chances Conceded (10), they are 6th worst in the league, then we go to Goal’s Conceded (7) which again 5th worst, then you will see Minutes Per xG Goal conceded (58), 2nd worst in the League, all fingers are pointing at The Red Devils. Looking at the data, this is positive news for Mohammed Salah
Areas of the Pitch being conceded:
|Teams||Chances Conceded on the Left Flank||Chances Conceded in the Centre||Chances Conceded on the Right Flank|
|Team||Big Chances Conceded||Goal Attempts Conceded||Goal Attempts In The Box Conceded||Goal Attempts Outside The Box Conceded||Goals Conceded||Minutes Per xG Conceded||xG Conceded|
Fixtures to Target:
Manchester United vs Liverpool
Manchester United have won just one of their last 10 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (Draw six and lost three), losing this exact fixture 4-2 last season. Liverpool are looking to secure consecutive league wins at Old Trafford for the first time since January 2002.
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 25 Premier League matches against United teams (Won 18 and Draw 7) since losing 2-1 away to Manchester United in March 2018. The Red Devils have only picked up eight points in their last seven home Premier L matches (won 2, Draw 2 and Lost 3).
Liverpool’s Mo Salah scored three goals in his two away games against Manchester United last season (two in the Fa Cup, one in the League).
Each of Roberto Firmino’s last 10 Premier League goals for Liverpool have come away from home. Nine of his chances created have been for Mason Greenwood, with no player setting up a teammate more so far this term.
Brentford vs Leicester City
Brentford are winless in their last seven meetings with Leicester in all competitions (Draw 1 and Lost 6). Leicester have won each of their last 5 away games against Brentford in all competitions, winning there in the FA Cup in each of the last two campaigns.
Leicester have won their last four Premier League away games against promoted sides, by an aggregate score of 11-2. However, The Foxes are winless in their last four away league games in London (Draw 1 and Lost 3), conceding more goals in these games (11) than they had in their previous 10 in the capital (9).
Both of Brentford’s Premier League defeats so far have come in home games (vs Brighton and Chelsea), while five of their seven goals conceded in the competition have come at the Brentford community Stadium.
Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored in each of his last four Premier League games. A goal here would see him become the eighth player to have three different runs in 5+ consecutive Premier League matches.
Looking at all the Data I have provided, Mohamed Salah is leading the attacking stats advantage and has the fixture to target, according to the data. Obviously this isn’t any other fixture, its Manchester United. The Red Devils haven’t won a game in their last 3 matches, poor attacking and defending. But they will come into this game with some slight confidence as they came from 2-0 down to beat Atlanta 3-2, Ronaldo scoring the late winner.
I expect Manchester United to play hardball, sitting deep and playing on the counter. Myself and many United fans believe we will play five at the back. Luke Shaw over recent games, has done very well when it comes to man marking Mo Salah.
Never the less, The Egyptian King has an average of 10.4 points per game. He’s produced a master class against the best team in the league Manchester City, so why are we hesitating and just slap the armband on Salah?
Originally this article was about Salah vs Lukaku, since Lukaku got himself injured I’m having to make adjustments. Vardy comes into the captaincy discussion, looking back at the Data I have provided his attacking stats aren’t far from Salah’s, he to has been very consistent averaging 7 fantasy points per game and despite Brentford great start of the season, I do feel they can leave themselves exposed at the back, plus Leicester is going into this game with confidence after beating Manchester United 4-2.
In my opinion, now Lukaku is out injured, there’s an opportunity to captain a differential this week.
Who will you captain for Gameweek9? I’ll leave that to you.
Thank you and all the best for this week!