GW11 Top Two Captaincy Picks
@FantasyFootyFix will cover the stats below.
Welcome back to “The FPL Way Captaincy Picks” article where I will be discussing the Top 2 Fantasy Premier League Captain options for the Gameweek ahead; as voted for by the FPL Community captaincy poll on Twitter. I will also be adding the “worthy mentions” player list ahead of the Gameweek.
Let’s get a quick reminder of how we did in GW10. Our number one captaincy pick had an ‘okayish’ return. Mohamed Salah provided an assist (5pts), which could have and should have been more for The Egyptian King. Looking ahead to Gameweek 11, let’s move forward and take a look at that all-important captaincy decision.
View the top captain and vice-captain picks for your chosen Gameweek, overall and for the top 1000 teams.
As you can see above, there was one particular asset that was everyone’s go-to captain of Gameweek 10. Salah was the highest selected captain with 98.9% of managers captaining him in the top 1000 rank. The captaincy statistics across all FPL Managers was a fraction of this with 55.9%.
£12.8m / 70.8%
Mohammed Salah sits in 1st place as your favourite captain with 75% of the vote.
What a game and what a comeback from the visitors in a game which resulted as Liverpool 2-2 Brighton. It seemed that Liverpool was going to have one of those days again. The Reds were 2-0 up in the first 25 minutes of the first half, with Jordon Henderson and Sadio Mane providing the early goals.
However, The Seagulls brought one back just before halftime, Enock Mwepu scored a spectacular goal and I would say Brighton had the better of the second half. Trossard levelled with a clinical finish in 65 minutes. The Belgium player went on to have a goal disallowed for offside which I think you could count Potters men unlucky not to get the full three points in all fairness.
Let’s draw our attention to the most owned player in Fantasy Football, Mohamed Salah. One assist and a goal disallowed for offside. FPL managers were unlucky not to get more returns from The Egyptian International.
Below you will a heat map of Mo Salah’s shot conversion throughout this season. He has a total of (42) shot’s, (35) inside the box, which is 1st best in the League and (21) shots on target; again 1st best.
Jamie Vardy – Leicester City
£10.8m / 31%
2. Jamie Vardy sits in 2nd place as your favourite captain with 9% of the vote.
It was a poor day at the office for Leicester City; they lost 2-0 at home against Arsenal. The Gunners had a high energy start which The Foxes could not handle. Arsenal was 2-0 up in the space of 20 minutes. Gabrial and Smith-Rowe provided the goods early on. Changes were made from Brendan Rodgers at the start of the second half. Harvey Barnes and Ademola Lookman were the men to mix things up.
Leicester’s changes did make a difference but they couldn’t get past a phenomenal performance by Aaron Ramsdale who kept The Foxes at bay with a string of five saves, including an incredible stop to deny James Maddison and Jonny Evans.
Jamie Vardy is up against a tasty fixture this week. Leicester is facing Leeds United who has been pretty poor in their defensive stats. Vardy does very well in regard to getting shots inside the box (22) from (24). The Peacocks sit 6th worst in the League for shots inside the box (94).
Top 7 Candidates Projected Points from GW11-16:
Below you will see the Top 7 Overall Projected Points for the next 6 Gameweeks. As you can see, Mohamed Salah leads Gameweek 11 for the most points (6.2) and with overall projected points of (43.8) which is an overall best. Just below The Egyptian International is Aubameyang with a projected score of (6.1) that’s (0.7) more than our top 2 best captaincies. Could he be the best differential? The Arsenal forward has returned two goals and one assist in his last three matches.
Let’s point out another standout differential, Kai Havertz has a projected score of (5.2) which is (0.2) off Jamie Vardy. The German international will be facing Burnley at home. One more differential and it’s a bold move; Antonio Rudiger, he’s projected to get (5.3) fantasy points. I would prefer to look at Reece James or Ben Chilwell if we are looking at Chelsea defenders for the captaincy though.
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Big Chances Created from GW 1-10:
🔴 Salah – 8
🔵 Vardy – 0
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Expected FPL Involvements from GW 1-10:
🔴 Salah – 10.5
🔵 Vardy – 4.7
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Minutes Per Shot from GW 1-10:
🔴 Salah – 21.4
🔵 Vardy – 35.3
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Goals from Inside Box from GW 1-10:
🔴 Salah – 10
🔵 Vardy – 7
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Expected Goals from GW 1-10:
🔴 Salah – 6.8
🔵 Vardy – 3.9
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Goals from GW 1-10:
🔴 Salah – 10
🔵 Vardy – 7
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Shot’s Inside Box from GW 1-10:
🔴 Salah – 35
🔵 Vardy- 22
Looking at the data above, Salah is ahead of Vardy for the best-attacking stats comparisons. Both players have had a flying start to the season. Salah is no doubt proving to be the more consistent asset between the two. Despite his form recently, I do think Vardy has a good case for the captaincy, which I will explain in more detail in the fixtures to target.
Salah still holds the best Fantasy Points Per Game, averaging (11.9) points to Vardy’s (5.8) points. The averaging points per game are some way out. My plan is to target the fixture for the Englishman which I think suits his style of play.
The table below cover attacking stats from the last 4 game weeks:
Toney (£6.6m / 20.6 %)
The Englishman hasn’t returned any points since Gameweek 6 but plays a huge part in the way Brentford play’s and their upcoming game is against Norwich City. Comparing the three worthy mentions candidates, Toney has the highest shot’s inside the box (18) and The Canaries are 3rd worst in the league for shots inside the box (101).
Aubameyang (£10.0m / 5.2%)
The Arsenal forward is starting to pick up some form, two goals and one assist in his last three matches. If we compare his minutes per shot (31.8) which is the best out of the three candidates and his projected points for this week is (6.1), that’s (0.1) less than Mo Salah. The Gunners are facing Watford at home. The Hornets minutes per xG conceded (57.5) which is the 3rd worst in the league.
Reece James (£5.7m / 11.9%)
If you fancy someone pretty differential, this guy is the man. Reece James is Chelsea’s top goalscorer with four goals. After a brilliant performance last week, scoring two goals and providing a clean sheet, his next opponent is Burnley at home. The Clarets have a poor goal attempt in the box conceded (106) which is the worst in the Premier League. All four goals from The English International have come from inside the box.
Below you will see a table providing attacking data for Gameweek 1-10.
The idea is for you to see another view of all the best candidates for this game week by breaking down different attacking stats.
|Captain Candidates||Goals||Assist’s||Mins per Goal Attempt In Box||Mins Per xGI|
|Salah vs West Ham (a)||10||6||25.7||98.1|
|Vardy vs Leeds United (a)||7||1||38.5||173.7|
|Mane vs West Ham (a)||6||0||29.4||121.4|
|Aubameyang vs Watford (h)||4||1||41.1||168.4|
|Toney vs Norwich (a)||2||2||35.8||199.6|
|Son vs Everton (a)||4||1||60.8||189.4|
|Kane vs Everton (a)||1||1||73.8||249.3|
|Foden vs Man United (a)||3||1||35.8||153|
|Ronaldo vs Man City (h)||4||1||25.2||116.6|
Top 8 teams for worst Minutes xG Conceded:
Below you will see a table providing Minutes xG Conceded data for Gameweek 1-10.
The idea is for you to see another view of all the best candidates’ opponents against for this game week by breaking down different defensive stats.
|Teams||Mins / Big Chance Conceded||Mins / Chance Conceded||Mins / xG Conceded||Mins / xG Conceded Non-Pen|
Comparing The Top 2 Captains opponents against:
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Big Chances Conceded for opponents:
🟡 Leed’s United – 18
⚫️ West Ham United – 12
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most xG Conceded for opponents:
🟡 Leed’s United – 16.23
⚫️ West Ham United – 11.55
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Minutes Per xG Conceded for opponents:
🟡 Leed’s United – 59.1
⚫️ West Ham United – 82.4
In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Goals Conceded for opponents:
🟡 Leed’s United – 17
⚫️ West Ham United – 11
The four-bar charts I have created show key Defensive Conceded Stats for the opponents games only, which Highlight’s Leeds United as the team to target. For Big Chances Conceded (18), they are 10th worst in the league, then we go to Goal’s Conceded (17) which again 5th worst, then you will see Minutes Per xG Goal conceded (59.1), 4th worst in the League, all fingers are pointing at The Peacocks. Looking at the data, this is positive news for Jamie Vardy.
Areas of the Pitch being conceded:
|Teams||Chances Conceded on the Left Flank||Chances Conceded in the Centre||Chances Conceded on the Right Flank|
|West Ham United||37||20||27|
Team Defensive xG Conceded:
|Team||Big Chances Conceded||Goal Attempts Conceded||Goal Attempts In The Box Conceded||Goal Attempts Outside The Box Conceded||Goals Conceded||Minutes Per xG Conceded||xG Conceded|
|West Ham United||12||119||81||38||11||82.4||11.55|
I want to highlight where Leed’s United have conceded their goals; they have conceded 17 goals this season which had been from inside the box. This is a positive for Jamie Vardy as he has scored all his goals from the inside (7).
We can also seek where West Ham is conceding their goals. All eleven goals have come from inside the box. This is key for the likes of Mo Salah as he has the most shots inside the box in the League (35) and scored (10).
West Ham will not be an easy team to break down. This season they sit 2nd best for big chances conceded (12). Also, I must add that The Hammers in the last 4 Gameweeks have the best xG conceded (3.60) in the League.
Top 8 teams for worst Minutes xG Conceded:
|Mins / Big Chance Conceded||Mins / Chance Conceded||Mins / xG Conceded|
Mins / xG Conceded Non-Pen
Fixtures to Target
West Ham United vs Liverpool
Liverpool has won four of their last five away league games against West Ham (Draw 1) and is looking to win three in a row at The Hammers for the first time since doing so between 2003 and 2007. Liverpool has scored 19 goals in their first five away Premier League games this season, with only two sides in the history of the top-flight ever scoring more at this stage. Liverpool has scored at least three goals in each of their last six away league games, netting 22 goals in total. In the entire history of the football league.
West Ham United have made the fewest changes to their starting XI in Premier League games this season (4), while no side has used fewer different players than the Hammers (18).
Liverpool’s Mo Salah has scored nine goals in eight Premier League appearances against the Hammers. He could become the seventh player to score 10+ goals against the Hammers in the competition, making them the side against which the most different players have reached double figures.
Michail Antonio has been directly involved in 17 goals in his last 22 Premier League games at the London Stadium for West Ham (11 goals, 6 assists).
Leed’s United vs Leicester City
Leicester has won four of their last five away league games against Leeds (lost one), as many they had in their previous 16 visits to Elland road. The Foxes are looking to win three in a row at Leeds for the first time in their history.
Since Leeds returned to the Premier League, Leicester is the only side to score four goals against them in the League match at Elland Road. Leicester has scored in each of their last 12 away Premier League game matches (Won 5, Draw 3 and Lost 4), with only Liverpool on a longer current run (15).
Jamie Vardy has scored in each of his last five away Premier League appearances in Yorkshire, netting two games against Huddersfield, two against Sheffield United and one against Leeds.
Gameweek 10 was a simple one and in regards to Captaincy for FPL managers with Mo Salah. This week won’t be so straightforward and that’s because West Ham isn’t an easy team to play against this season. They are a strong side defensively and we should be cautious of this. The data above demonstrates this.
The Egyptian International will be the most captained this week and I’m not against it. He’s in the best form of his life and his (11.9) Fantasy Points per game prove this.
Jamie Vardy, now I really like this fixture. Leeds’ playing style suits The Englishman as they like to play a Highline which will leave space at the back. Leeds doesn’t really change their play style, but of course, they will need to be conservative as Vardy will cause problems.
So, who will be your captain for Gamweek 11?
I’ll leave that decision to you.
Thank you for reading and good luck.