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GW23 – Who is the best Captain?


Updated following the confirmation of the DGW

We now have confirmation that there will be a Double Gameweek in Gameweek 23; Burnley vs Watford.

With Burnley playing Watford at home, we now have two strikers who could be great contenders for the Captaincy pick:


Forwards

Watford vs Norwich (H) and Burnley (A)

Dennis vs King

My thought’s between the two candidates is that there isn’t a lot between them both, King should be on pen’s, Dennis plays more centrally and has the higher effective ownership.

Shots Heat Map’s Comparison: GW 17-22

Not a lot of difference compared to their shot’s at goal, King’s data show’s he edges for Shot’s in Box (4-6) and he has three more shot’s on goal (5-8), equal with shots on target (3-3).

Attacking Averages for Attack and Defence: GW17-22

This Graphic highlights that Dennis is the more creative player between the two, he edges slightly with his xA (0.55-0.38) and one big chance created than King. Attempted Assist goes to King (2-6).

Will one of these players be your captain?

Read on to find out about other potential captains if you are thinking of targeting a team that has a single fixture in Gameweek 23…


“The FPL Way Captaincy Picks” A Thread where I will be discussing the Fantasy Premier League best Captain for the Gameweek ahead;

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View the top captain picks for your chosen Gameweek 22, overall and for the top 1000 teams.

Ronaldo was the highest selected captain with 54.6% of top 1k managers captaining the Portuguese.

We had many comments from the #FPLCommunity so thank you for the replies.

Lot’s of different candidates to consider so I will break down the most popular.


Defender’s

Trent Alexander-Arnold vs Cancelo

Two interesting candidates and both are having brilliant seasons. Trent has two goals compared to Cancelo’s one. Both have 11 shot’s in the box, Cancelo with the higher xG (2.17 – 1.58) and Trent has a higher Pts Per Game (7.5 – 6.3)

Shot’s Heat Map’s Comparison: GW 17-22

This graphic show’s how close the comparisons are, in the last 6 GW’s Trent has 9 shot’s to Cancelo 8, both have equal shot’s inside the box (4-4). However, Trent does lead for the most penalty touches in the box (20-12).

Attack and Defence Radar: GW17-22

One of the stand out stats in this graphic below is Trent’s attempt assist’s (14-4), his big chances created (3-1) and has a high expected assist (1.72-1.00) compared. Cancelo does have the better expected clean sheets (2.20-2.84).


Midfielder’s

De Bruyne vs Bruno Fernandes

Both player’s had a decent GW22, Fernandes scored two goals to KDB’s one. The Belgium player has a higher Pts Per Game (7.8-6.3) in the last 6 GW’s, 4 goals and one assist. Fernandes holds the higher xG (1.70-0.98).

Shot’s Heat Map Comparison: GW 17-22

The two heat maps compare the candidate’s shots ratio, De Bruyne has completed 22 goals to Fernandes 6, nine of those shots were inside the box to Bruno’s two.

Penalty area touches: (21-9)

Attacking Averages for Attack and Defence: GW17-22

This graphic will again highlight how influential De Bruyne is compared to Fernandes. He has created 20 chances which are the highest in the league, 20 attempted assist’s to Bruno’s 8 and has 3 big chances created.

Potential DGW22 for Aston Villa and Leeds:


Watkins vs Raphina

If Villa and Leeds get a DGW then in my opinion we should prioritise the captaincy for Watkin’s or Raphina.

Interesting attacking data between the two candidates, Raphinha has the slight edge in terms of xG (1.60-1.45) and created more Big Chances than Watkin’s (2-0). The data tells us that Watkins is more clinical when it comes to shots at goal.

Stats covered for the last 6 GW’s:

Both players are very close when it comes to fantasy point’s (16-17), but as you can see the data expect Raphinha to get the most point’s going forward, (15.6-20.7) and nearly doubling his BPS compared to Watkin’s (46-60).

Top 8 Candidates Projected Points from GW22-27:

The Top 8 Overall Projected Points for the next 6 Gameweeks. As you can see Ronaldo has the highest projected points for DGW22 (6.4) and with overall projected points of (39.7). I don’t recommend Captaining due to his bad form.

In second Fantasy Football Fix has Raphinha with (5.3pts) and overall points for the next 6 GW’s (27.3).

Kevin De Bruyne has been projected to have (5.6pts) for GW23 and an overall (36.6) which is the second-best projected for the next 6 Gameweeks.


My Differential Captain


Fixtures to target

Stats Covered by @FFScout

Below you will see data for the last 4 Gameweeks for Areas of the Pitch being Conceded:

TEAM DEFENSIVE XG CONCEDED

Below you will see data for Team Defensive xG Conceded

Southampton to target:

Overall Southampton is the worst in the league for big chances conceded (11) and conceded 7 goals in the last 4.

West Ham to Target:

The Hammer’s are 3rd worst in the league for conceding 9 goals and conceding 49 Shot’s In the Box, (1st worst).

Crystal Palace to Target:

Palace sits 3rd worst in the league for Minutes Per xG Conceded and 2nd worst for xG Conceded (7.77).

The Eagles have only kept one clean sheet in the last 4 GW’s and conceded 7 goals in the last 4.

West Ham has conceded 16 chances in the centre zones which is the worst in the league. The Hammer’s have conceded 7 goals from inside the box in the last 4 Gameweeks, Ronaldo has 8 goals this season, all have come from the inside of the box.

Southampton has conceded 14 chances down the left zones and conceded 56 crosses which is the most chances they have conceded in these areas of the pitch in the last 4 Gameweeks.

The data show’s that the Saints are weak down their left flank which is positive news for Cancelo, as for De Bruyne we do expect him to play more Centrally, which is where Southampton defend at best, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see the Belgium drift to the wider zones.

Palace is joint second for big chances conceded 10, they have conceded 21 chances down the left, 14 down the right and just only 5 in the central zones. Clearly, show’s they defend well through the middle but are weak down the flanks, which could be good for the likes of Jota.


Summary

The data I have provided has Manchester City as the team to pick for the captaincy, highlighting Cancelo and De Bruyne as the favourites.

If we do get a double GW for Villa and Leeds United then I would strongly consider either Watkin’s or Raphinha.

Thank you for reading all and all the best for Gameweek 23!

Let us know if you have any questions in the comments below 💙