The Final Differentials Article of the season! GW38

Gameweek 38 Differentials article, I feel I’ve saved the best until last.

Written by Aiden Smith (@FPLCasuals)

Welcome back, Ladies & Gents. I hope you are doing well, I have mixed feeling about this as it is the final Gamweek of my very first season within the Fantasy Premier League space. On one hand, I’m excited it is over, due to the slight balding on the top of my head whereas on the other its become a routine for me now.

For the final time this season, I will be highlighting some awesome differential picks for you to choose from. These will help you exceed your wildest dreams within your overall rank fantasy or help you champion your mini-league. As you may be aware stats will be taken from the last four games. Hope you enjoy it and good luck with your final Gameweek.

Nicolas Pepe: £7.6 – 1.7%

Fixture: Brighton (H)

I was speaking to someone on Twitter Spaces on deadline day last week & he asked if Pepe was a good shout. I really hope he decided to bring him in off the back of that performance vs CRY. I’ll be bringing Nicolas Pepe in this week as I feel he will be a great differential for the final Gameweek.

  • xG: 0.66 xA: 0.17
  • 3 Goals & 0 Assist
  • 3 Starts 1 Sub On
  • 19 Penalty area touches
  • 6 Goal attempts (6 in the box)
  • 2 chances created
  • 1 Big chance total (1 scored)
  • 126 Touches in the final third

I think against a Brighton team with nothing to play for could be the perfect cocktail for attacking returns. Brighton is notoriously tricky to unlock that’s why I think Pepe gets the nod, His flair and swagger down the right-hand side for Arsenal could be the key to unlocking the seagulls on the final day of the season.

One caveat I’m willing to admit in this analysis is that from Gameweek 19 onwards, Brighton has conceded the second-fewest goals in the league (15) on second to Chelsea. However, with nothing to play for and Arsenals dignity hanging in the balance, I think the reds will be too much for the blues on the final day of the season.

Roberto Firmino: £9.1 – 5%

Fixture: Crystal Palace (H)

I bet you never thought you’d see Bobby included in the differentials article, did you? The blend of fixture & fight for the top four is what has landed him in this write-up. In the last four matches, he seems to have found his shooting boots which have been locked away for 80% of the season.

  • xG: 1.23 xA: 0.30
  • 3 Goals & 1 Assist
  • 3 Starts 1 Sub on
  • 14 Penalty area touches
  • 8 Goal attempts (7 in the box)
  • 3 Big Chances (2 Socred 1 missed)
  • 34 Minutes per attempt
  • 7 Chances created 2 Thorugh balls & 3 Big Chances created
  • 74 Touches in the final third

With Crystal Palace on the horizon, I do feel he is a great pick for this week. Liverpool has started putting some tasty attacking football together so people are looking at the triple up & with Jota injured and very unlikely to feature if you cannot afford Mane or Salah then this is your next best pick.

Roy Hodgson is set to leave CRY at the end of the season and many of their players are out of contract. One last hurrah for old boy Roy + Players who will want to impress potential future employers could see Palace be more attacking and if that happens I can’t see any outcome, they will be picked apart by a hungry Liverpool side itching for Champions League football next season.

Chris Wood: £6.5 – 4.7%

Fixture: Sheffield United (A)

The big New Zealand powerhouse is making an appearance in the final article of the season from me. He has peaked at the perfect time for FPL managers that have had the stones to take the risk on him. The hat-trick sickened me to the stomach with jealousy I didn’t have the great idea the rest of you had.

  • xG: 1.89 xA: 0.25
  • 2 Goals & 0 Assist
  • 4 Starts
  • 19 Penalty area touches
  • 10 Goal attempts (7 in the box)
  • 32 Minutes per attempt
  • 4 Chances created
  • 79 Touches in the final third

I said it before, and ill say it again if we are not targeting Sheffield United this season what is the point. You may as well log out and delete your account. He has been cropping up in the right place at the right time meaning the Kiwi has really started to turn it on for Burnley toward the end of the season.

Sheffield United had conceded 34 goals since Gameweek 19 making them the fourth-worst defence in the league since the halfway point & at the other end of the pitch have only scored 10 goals making them the bluntest attack since Gameweek 19.

Rayan Ait Nouri: £5 – 0.2%

Fixture: Manchester United (H)

You’re probably sat there thinking “Have you gone mental Aiden, a Wolves defender?” Well, you’d be totally right I’ve lost the plot and given up this season therefore welcome to Differential Town. Hear me out once we have looked at some stats.

  • xG: 0.16 xA: 0.31
  • 0 Goals & 0 Assist
  • 9 Penalty area touches
  • 4 Goal attempts (2 in the box)
  • 7 chances created
  • 112 Touches in the final third
  • 45% tackle success rate
  • Loose Ball – Interceptions: 5 – Recoveries: 16 – Clearances: 5

I mean look at those stats? Not bad. Averaging a goal attempt each game and a staggering 7 chances created it’s a shame they don’t have a notable striker to finish these chances off.

To summarize I feel like Man Utd are going to rotate fairly heavily in this game due to the Europa League Final three days after this fixture. Both teams have nothing to play for so in my opinion, this could be a real snooze-fest hence why a punt on a Wolves doesn’t sound too bad after all.

Joe Willock: £4.8 – 2.9%

Fixture: Fulham (A)

Last but certainly not least we feature Joe Willock. He featured last week but not too much detail so I thought id give him more credit and go again considering he scored again last Gameweek.

  • xG: 2.22 xA: 0.11
  • 4 Goals & 0 Assist
  • 3 Starts
  • 15 Penalty area touches
  • 9 Goal attempts (8 in the box)
  • 2 chances created
  • 36 Touches in the final third
  • 30 Minutes per attempt

A recently relegated Fulham with a deflated Scott Parker, combine that with an “inform” Newcastle this could end badly for Scott Parker in my opinion. This season I’ve tried to find a good blend between form & fixtures and this meets that criteria nicely. I did want to go Allan Saint-Maximum however he is a slight doubt for this game.

The FPL Way XV Differential Squad.

Above is our differential picks for this Gameweek. Please keep in mind that this team isn’t essentially how we would go ahead with the Gameweek, it is more a bit of fun to point out some differential picks in certain positions that you could add to your team. We wanted to continue the theme as we have provided you with an FPL Way XV Scout Picks and the Value (budget) squad that we release each week.

I do really hope you enjoyed reading and digesting this article. Good luck in the upcoming Gameweek and hopefully if you decide to go with a pick included in this article that it provides you with a nice green arrow. If you do decide to transfer in one of these players let us know in the comments below and tell us which one went with and how it went.


Blank Gameweek 36 Differential Picks – Fantasy Premier League

Blank Gameweek 36 Differential Picks, done The FPL Way!

Written by: Aiden Smith (@FPLCasuals)

Happy Wednesday ladies & gents and welcome back to my weekly differentials article. Wow, what a crazy swing between Gameweeks. We’ve gone from a Triple & Double Gameweek to a Blank Gameweek which has proven very hard to navigate. If you are like me and decided to triple up on Manchester United along with having triple Chelsea alongside a sprinkle of some Leicester players, then you may be in a little bit of a sticky situation! For me taking a hit is definitely on the cards and I’m absolutely fine with that.

Similar to previous Gameweeks I will be identifying five differential picks for this week’s round of fixtures. It was fairly tricky this week due to the teams that were blanking and at the point of releasing this article, all of these players were under 10% ownership. You’ll notice some of these players have just come back from injury so again I’ll be using data from the last four games played, not Gameweeks.

Ferran Torres: £6.9 – 0.8%

Fixture: Newcastle

Here we go! The one, the only Ferran Torres! I’ve been waiting all season to include him in my differentials article. As you can tell I do enjoy watching Torres play and I have been looking for an excuse to bring him into my team, I have once this season and he scored so let’s hope it can happen again.

Last Four Games:

  • xG: 0.73 xA: 0.53
  • 2 Goals & 0 Assist
  • 3 Starts
  • 17 Penalty area touches
  • 7 Goal attempts (6 in the box)
  • chances created
  • 80 Touches in the final third

Love these stats above! I’m so excited to bring him into my squad this Gameweek. City made the UCL final meaning that we know there is going to be rotation within the next few weeks and in my opinion, I really feel we could see minutes for Torres in the next few games. My reasoning for this is we can kind of predict the UCL starting 11 for City and I don’t see Torres starting. I cant see Pep risking the fitness of the likes of Mahrez, Foden & Silva as I can imagine they will get the nod.

In conclusion, I think Torres will be chomping at getting the minutes as he will want to gain some momentum for the Euros and play his way into the Spain squad. He could be your secret weapon moving forward until the end of the season!

Ben Godfrey: £5.0 – 0.8%

Fixture: Sheffield United

Godfrey has started all four of the last games. For anyone wondering if he is nailed on, he has played 90 minutes twenty-four times this season. He can play various positions across the backline and has appeared at CB & RB and has passed the eye test in both.

Last Four Games:

  • xG: 0.21 xA: 0.21
  • 0 Goals & 1 Assist
  • 2 Clean Sheets
  • 13/15 Tackles completed (86%)
  • 4 Goal conceded
  • Loose Ball: Interceptions – 6 Recoveries – 16 Clearances – 2 Blocks – 7
  • 1 Chance Created

This might be my favourite differential. When you blend the fixtures and the talent from Godfrey, I do feel like a clean sheet + bonus points is on the cards.  Looking at the next two fixtures, Godfrey plays SHU & WOV; correct me if I’m wrong, however, both these teams seem to be sat on a sunny beach sipping cocktails. As you can see from the defensive stats Godfrey is right up there for tackle completion % and loose ball situations and this means that with a clean sheet his bonus points will be nice as well.

In conclusion, at Goodison Park this year, Everton have not exactly been solid at the back keeping only 2 clean sheets all season whereas Away from home they have been much more solid. Godfrey has kept 7 clean sheets on the road this year and my point is they will want to improve that home record before the end of the season.

Stuart Armstrong: £5.5 – 0.5%

Fixture: Fulham

Stuart Armstong has been popping up all season and I feel against a wounded Fulham side he could prove to pop up again with a goal contribution. Scoring four goals and providing four assists for his team this season, he has been a thorn in the side of teams and seems to always be a threat when on the pitch. However, we have to take into account that without Ings they have looked a little blunt going forward.

Last Four Games:

  • xG: 0.31 xA: 0.14
  • 0 Goals & 0 Assist
  • 7 Penalty area touches
  • 7 Goal attempts (2 in the box)
  • 51 Mins per attempt
  • 1 chance created
  • 64 Touches in the final third

With this less than 1% ownership, this differential would be taking a risk. However, he plays FUL & LEE in his next two fixtures. He has started 3/4 games and has received 48 touches in the final third meaning he is getting into attacking positions. He ranks 4th amongst Southampton MID for xG only behind Redmond, JWP & Minamino.

In conclusion, yes you might be thinking I’m crazy, however, my job here is to go out and find some differentials with nice fixtures moving forward that I think are going to do well. I truly believe that we can see an attacking return. As mentioned they are playing a wounded Fulham side & a Leeds side we know can either be hammered or do the hammering.

Raphinha: £5.4 – 5%

Fixture: Burnley

I’m not going to sit here and do too much talking in regards to Raph as we all know exactly what he brings to the table; flair, silk & finesse. With him back from injury, I can see Leeds having a strong end to what has been a really exciting season for Leeds. I’m glad they’re staying in the PL and I’m excited to see what they bring next year. The question is will Raph be playing for them?

He ranks 8th for chances created (57) all season from every MID.

Last Four Games:

  • xG: 0.88 xA: 1.13
  • 1 Goal & 2 Assist
  • 16 Penalty area touches
  • 11 Corners taken
  • 5 Goal attempts (3 in the box)
  • 10 chances created (2 big chance)
  • 30 Mins per chance created
  • 79 Touches in the final third

Look at those stats! This bloke is such an exciting player and brings nothing but joy to the football pitch and your FPL teams. From an FPL standpoint; he has been a joy to have in my team this year and he would have stayed if he didn’t get injured. Leeds are such a forward-thinking team and it really is like a Basketball match every time they play.

In conclusion, Raph plays BUR, SOU & WBA between now and the end. I know this is a BGW36 article, however, it’s always good to keep in mind that you shouldn’t be keeping players you can keep until the end of the season. Burnley’s defensive form has dropped now that they are pretty much nailed on to play in the PL next season and they’re another one of those “On the beach” teams to target.

Michail Antonio: £6.4 – 5.5%

Fixture: Brighton

If this guy could just stay fit he would be one of the best strikers in the league. Based on the season West Ham have had, I do really think if he could stay fit he’d be right up there with the most owned players this season. The combination play that West Ham can produce is up there and he is the perfect man to get in your squad for the run-in.

Last Four Games:

  • xG: 2.76 xA: 0.36
  • 2 Goals & 2 Assist
  • 26 Penalty area touches
  • 14 Goal attempts (12 in the box)
  • 4 Big chances (50% conv)
  • chances created (1 big chance)
  • 101 Touches in the final third

Disgusting stats from a next-level baller. Antonio ranks second amongst all strikers in the last four Gameweeks for xG, only behind Chris Wood! He has proven that when even 70% fit he is scoring goals. West Ham has BHA,  WBA & SOU between now and the end of the season and he is another player I am seriously considering. West Ham scores 1.6 goals per game on average and that ranks 6th in the PL all season and have 4.2 shots on target per match which ranks 10th. He ranks 3rd for penalty area touches & 4th for total goal attempts.

In conclusion, FPL managers are going to be really split between DCL, Bamford & Antonio in my opinion. The big man Antonio is the way to go looking at the stats above


Above is our differential picks for this Gameweek. Please keep in mind that this team isn’t essentially how we would go ahead with the Gameweek, it is more a bit of fun to point out some differential picks in certain positions that you could add to your team. We wanted to continue the theme as we have provided you with an FPL Way XV Scout Picks and the Value (budget) squad that we release each week.

I do really hope you enjoyed reading and digesting this article. Good luck in the upcoming Gameweek and hopefully if you decide to go with a pick included in this article that it provides you with a nice green arrow. If you do decide to transfer in one of these players let us know in the comments below and tell us which one went with and how it went.


Triple & Double Gameweek 35 Differentials!

Double & Triple Gameweek Differentials, done the right way.

Written by: Aiden Smith (FPLCasuals)

Today I will be exploring six differentials that have Double & Triple Gameweeks coming up or a favourable Single game week. I have also taken into account these player’s fixtures until the end of the season. With the announcement of the Triple Gameweek, you will see that I have also included a pick from Manchester United.

At the end of this article, I will also provide you with a differentials team consisting of 15 players that all have juicy fixtures while are also with a low ownership percentage. If you were in a position like me this will help you out as I’m currently ranked 400K and I am looking to gain rank quickly through some interesting selections.

The numbers that you’ll see presented below are all over the last four games.

Eberechi Eze: £5.8m – 0.9%

Fixtures: Sheffield United and Southampton

Firstly I’m not going to sit here and try and convince you that Eze has set the world alight this season, however, if we’re looking at fixtures over form then this pick makes total sense. Not only does Eze have a Double Gameweek, but he is also playing two of the worst defences in the league this season. In a Crystal Palace team that has struggled all season, Eze & Zaha have both looked the most dangerous going forward. Now let’s look at some of the numbers.

Last Four Gameweeks:

  • xG: 0.13 xA: 0.54
  • 0 Goals & 1 Assist
  • 6 Penalty area touches
  • 8 Corners taken
  • 3 Goal attempts (2 in the box)
  • 8 chances created (1 big chance)
  • 68 Touches in the final third

Crystal Palace has three nice games on the bounce after the Double Gameweek week they play Aston Villa at home. However, I have only included one Palace player because their fixtures change after Aston Villa. I have included Eze over a defender because Palace has conceded on average 1.7 goals per game and have scored on average 1 goal per game so the attacking numbers certainly outweigh the possibility of a clean sheet. Southampton has conceded 1.8 goals per game which are only better than West Bromwich Albion and Sheffield United (Sheffield United have also conceded 1.8 goals per game) so their defensive numbers would indicate there is an opportunity here for a return.

In conclusion, this is a huge differential however I do feel these fixtures are favourable and can see the likes of Eze performing well and potentially returning with the goal or an assist. The reason Zaha isn’t in this article is due to the fact he may be injured on not start in these games. In terms of talent, we’ve all seen what Eze can do and he has shown glimpses of brilliance on the ball, and his dribbling ability is there for everyone to see which may result in some bonus points as well as a potential attacking return.

Ademola Lookman: £4.8 – 1.4%

Fixture: Burnley

Now if I’m being honest I do really enjoy watching Fulham and I think they’ve really turned a corner since Christmas however, lately their form seems to have dropped at a vital part of the season. I like Scott Parker as a manager and I do hope to see him back In the Premier League soon if Fulham were to be relegated. Now for me, Lookman is Fulham’s brightest spark and this will be proven when we take a look at the underlying numbers.

Last Four Games:

  • xG: 0.32 xA: 0.51
  • 0 Goals & 1 Assist
  • 16 Penalty area touches
  • 104 Touches in the final third
  • 5 Goal attempts (59 mins per attempt)
  • 10 Chances created (1 Big)
  • 66% dribble success rate
  • 32 Crosses & 26 Corners

I think it’s clear to everyone that Lookman passes the eye test and from what I’ve seen I can’t imagine he’ll be playing in the Championship next season. I feel that he can add a lot to most teams in the Premier League. Lookman has scored four goals and contributed four assists all season and in a team without a significant striker, it is impressive to me, when you marry this up with Burnley’s poor recent form you do start to get a sense that there may be an attacking return in this game.

In conclusion, you’ll see that I have added more Fulham assets to the differentials team. The reason for this is due to their favourable fixtures towards the end of the season and the sheer determination I have noticed Scott Parker displays. In a recent post-match interview, he mentioned that he does genuinely feel they can get four wins from their last four games and it’s an attitude like this that I do like to see from the manager when picking the assets to have in my own team; you know he’s going to push his players to the limit. In my opinion, you could keep a Fulham player in your team until the end of the season.

Gylfi Sigurdsson: £6.9m – 3%

Fixtures: West Ham United and Aston Villa

Some of you will romanticise of seasons gone by when having Gylfi in your teams was essential. In his Swansea and Tottenham days, he was in a lot of teams for the majority of the season. Another weapon in Sigurdsson’s arsenal is that he is on set pieces and not only is he on them he is also somewhat of an expert. The reason he’s in this article is that he has found minutes within the Everton midfield. With Rodriguez not yet fully fit, I can see Gylfi playing at least 1 1/2 of these games. Now let’s look at some numbers.

Last Four Games:

  • xG: 1.40 xA: 0.26
  • 2 Goal & 0 Assists
  • 4 Starts
  • 11 Goal attempts
  • 10 Penalty area touches
  • 1 big chance (1 Scored)
  • 7 Goal Attempts (4 In the box)
  • 32 Successful passes in the final third (84% completion)
  • 4 Chances created

As you can see from the stats above he is not only a goal threat from set-pieces he is also a provider, creating one chance per game with a high pass completion rate in the final third. As per the FPL App, it says Rodriguez has a 75% chance of playing. When you compare this to the form of Gylfi, I can’t see any reason why he wouldn’t start both of these games. Rodriguez’s fitness has always been a minor problem throughout his career. Sigurdsson has scored six goals and contributed four assists in the Premier League this season.

In conclusion, over the last few game weeks, West Ham has been involved in some high-scoring, end-to-end games, and with Declan Rice still injured this could be a contributing factor for space within the midfield where Sigurdsson likes to operate. As for Aston Villa, they do have an impressive clean sheet record this season but their form of late has been questionable. They have conceded chances and goals recently, although on paper these fixtures do not look great for both West Ham and Aston Villa’s defences. As I mentioned before, not only have Everton got a Double Gameweek, their fixtures until the rest of the season are also attractive from an FPL standpoint.

Che Adams: £5.7m – 4.2%

Fixtures: Liverpool and Crystal Palace

Che Adams has been in and out of the team of late and it’s a little hard to understand why. Coming back off the International Break where he scored for Scotland, he has struggled to find minutes and form in the Southampton side. However, with Danny Ings injured I do feel he can find a run within the team.

Last Four Games:

  • xG: 0.75 xA: 0.08
  • 0 Goal & 0 Assists
  • 32 Touches in the final third
  • 6 Penalty area touches
  • 3 Goal Attempts
  • Big chances in the box
  • Chance Created

The main reason Adams is included in this article is due to the fact that Ings is injured. Having watched Adams all season (due to the fact I made a bet with my friend that he would score 15 goals this season), I have noticed he does a lot of running for the team. This, unfortunately, means he creates more space for others as opposed to himself and he does sometimes sacrifice returns to benefit the team, which isn’t good from an FPL aspect. Che Adams did find some form with back-to-back goals in a defeat to City & a defeat to Brighton which does indicate he is a streaky player.

To conclude, this guy is featured here due to the fact that I believe he will start both games. And as we saw at the start of the season when The Saints are on form they can bang goals and compete in matches. Again as mentioned at the start of the article, I wanted to include players with nice fixtures this week and for the rest of the season. After the DGW Southampton play Fulham & Leeds. So keeping Adams until the end of the season may not be a bad shout.


Sadio Mane: £11.7m – 5.2%

Fixtures: Southampton and Manchester United

Now I do fully understand that Mane has seriously been off the boil this season. That being said, Mane in my opinion is still one of the best left-wingers in football on his day. Not only that he plays for one of the best teams in the Premier League over the last few years. Mane is one of those players that can score two or three goals out of nowhere. You can look at it both ways, he has missed the chances but he’s also got himself in the right position to get some returns.

Last Four Games:

  • xG: 1.61 xA: 0.48
  • 1 Goal & 1 Assists
  • 92 Touches in the final third
  • 26 Penalty area touches
  • 11 Goal Attempts (11 In the box)
  • 36 Mins per attempt
  • 5 Big chances (1 scored 4 missed)
  • 5 Chances Created (2 Big chances created)

As per the app “FotMob” which is widely used with the football community Mane is actually Liverpool’s top-rated player with a rating of 7.31 across the whole season. Although he’s been off the boil this season he’s scored 8 goals & 5 assists in the Premier League this season. Liverpool has created the second most big chances this season (66) only behind Man City. As we know Southampton’s defensive numbers are pretty shocking. They have won one game in the last five and in that time last three on the bounce so I am expecting goals in this fixture.

In conclusion, we now have news that Liverpool will have a double Gameweek, this news came as I was writing this article so, in theory, this makes Mane a much more attractive asset moving forward. As mentioned before, Mane has very favourable fixtures until the end of the season after the Double Gameweek. He plays West Brom, Burnley & Crystal Palace. I do understand he has a high price value and you would have to sacrifice another “Premium”, however, this isn’t called a Differential Article for nothing!

Mason Greenwood: £7.1 – 6.3%

Fixtures: Aston Villa, Leicester & Liverpool

In his last four matches, Greenwood has been one of the most in-form players in the Premier League. Similar to last season he seems to have hit a run of form towards the end of the season and with the news breaking that Manchester United will have a Triple Gameweek I had to include a Manchester United player in this differentials article. Ole seems to really like Greenwood and he has seen a consistent run in the team in the last few weeks. He is also one of the best natural finishers in the league and probably the best natural finisher at the club.

Last Four Games:

  • xG: 1.82 xA: 0.62
  • 4 Goal & 1 Assists
  • 109 Touches in the final third
  • 26 Penalty area touches
  • 16 Goal Attempts (13 In the box)
  • 18 Mins per attempt on goal
  • 72 Mins per goal
  • 4 Big chances (2 Scored 2 missed)
  • 4 Chances created (2 Big chances created)

I have to admit I can’t believe these numbers when I was putting this article together. I knew that Greenwood had been in good form however these underlying numbers blew me away and has actually convinced me to transfer him in this Gameweek. Obviously, the decision was made easier with the announcement of the Triple Gameweek. With the underlying numbers like the ones above, I don’t really think I have to convince you much more.

In conclusion, I wish I was able to triple up with Manchester United players. I have two free transfers and I’ll definitely be using one of them for Greenwood. Keep in mind that United do have a blank Gameweek after the triple so it is good to get a balanced team.

The FPL Way Differentials Team:

This team comes to £91m, meaning that you do have some funds left in the bank. Please keep in mind that this team isn’t essentially how we would go ahead with the Gameweek,  it is more a bit of fun to point out some differential picks in certain positions. We wanted to continue the theme as we have provided you with an FPL Way XV Scout Picks and the value (budget) squad already this week.

I do really hope you enjoyed reading and digesting this article. Good luck in the upcoming Gameweek and hopefully if you decide to go with a pick included in this article that it provides you with a nice green arrow. If you do decide to transfer in one of these players let us know below which one and how it went.



Differential Picks For Gameweek 34

With only five Gameweeks remaining to determine our end-of-season rank, now is the time to really push on and go differential to boost your rank. In this article, I will discuss four differentials you should consider to end your season with. Whether you’re looking to push on in rank, get an edge on mini-league rivals or play for enjoyment we have you covered. All our picks are under 10% ownership.

Timothy Castagne – 5.8m

Ownership: 6.3%

A goal and assist against Crystal Palace and West Brom respectively highlight Castagne’s attacking potential. He also plays for a Leicester side who have the league’s third-best XG conceded (4.45) in the last six matches. Southampton and Newcastle provide excellent short-term fixtures for output on both ends of the pitch. While fixtures against United, Chelsea, and Spurs are likely to be close, cagey affairs perfect for clean sheets.

Seamus Coleman – 4.8m

Ownership: 1.8%

Since being highlighted in our differentials article a few weeks back Coleman has been involved in three clean sheets and managed two assists. At 4.8m he represents great value, surprisingly ranking sixth among defenders for xA (0.64) over the last four matches.

Everton’s fixtures also look great, with fixtures against Aston Villa, Sheffield United, Wolves, and the recently leaky Hammers. Everton are also set to play a double gameweek, most likely in GW35. Boasting an upcoming double gameweek, great fixtures, exceptional value, and low ownership Coleman could be a great buy for the season run-in.

Matheus Pereira – 5.5m

Ownership: 5%

Since Sam Allardyce deployed Pereira through the middle against Chelsea he has managed four goals and two assists. He also sits second behind Salah for xGI (3.37) in those last four matches. West Brom’s fixtures may look tricky on paper, however, they are facing inconsistent Liverpool and Arsenal sides, a recently leaky West Ham team, and a Wolves side who have just conceded four to Burnley. Pereira’s set-piece duties also provide him with another route to points.

Gareth Bale – 9.1m

Ownership: 3%

With Spurs set to have only one game a week from now until the end of the season, this should provide Bale with enough rest time between matches. Son may be the safer pick out of the two however, Son is out of form and Bale provides a great differential to get an edge on mini-league rivals and gain rank. Spurs’ fixtures also look brilliant and could even warrant a triple up on the Spurs attack.

Differential Picks For Gameweek 33

Sumptuous Gameweek 33 Differential Picks:


Wow, what a week we have had in the footballing world. First, the news of the Super League and the sacking of Jose Mourinho, talking & even thinking about FPL feels rather odd when there are much bigger fish to fry. However, I’m here to try and resume some normality.

Today I will be exploring some potent picks for Gameweek 33. I wanted to include some players that have a nice fixture this week while also having favourable fixtures in the coming weeks. Just to give you an idea of my current thought process, I had a nice green arrow last week climbing up the FPL ranks so I am now going to be choosing my battles far more carefully when It comes to differentials this week. I am currently sat at 62% on the ‘Template Rating’ on Livefpl.net so my team already includes a fair few interesting players.

Similar to last week, I will be picking five players who I feel will be good to have for this week and for the longer term. My aim for this week is to give you something to think about with your free transfer and hopefully give you an edge over your mini-league rival or increase your overall.

Please note; all stats & figures will be over the last 4 Gameweeks except for one player who has just come back from injury.

Mason Greenwood: £7.0 – 2.9%

Fixture: Leeds United

First up we have Mason Greenwood the Icelandic womanizing wonderkid. He has been in great form recently and with Anthony Martial out injured he has been enjoying greater game time over the last couple. Ole seems to like this kid and he is one of the best finishers I have seen in recent years. Remember towards the end of last season when this geezer was getting FPL managers some serious points? That being said, let’s look at some numbers:

Last Four Gameweeks:

  • xG: 1.59 xA: 0.42
  • 4 Goals & 1 Assist
  • 20 Penalty area touches
  • 49 Mins per goal
  • 4 Big chances (Scored 2)
  • 12 Goal attempts (6 Shots on target)
  • 2 Big chances created (3 In total)

Now, these numbers are even more impressive due to the fact he has started twice in the last four and came on as a sub once. Last week I would have said that he is a slight rotation risk however with the form he’s been in recently I don’t think Ole will be taking him out of the team. I think Greenwood is a good pick moving forward due to playing Leeds in his next fixture and we all know how games v Leeds can go (Like a basketball game). Manchester United’s fixtures until the end of the season are looking nice too, they play Aston Villa, Fulham & Wolves.

In conclusion, I would personally be considering Greenwood if I hadn’t already brought in Edison Cavani who seems more of a rotation risk than Greenwood. One thing to keep in mind is that they have the Europa League to navigate & I wouldn’t be surprised if he was rested so he can play in these games. The young man has a shot accuracy of 50% and he is converting 1/3 shots to goals. Leeds is a great fixture and we all know how much space can be left on the counter against Leeds and they do like to bomb forward.

Adama Traoré: £6.0 – 5.6%

Fixture: Burnley

This is another player I would never have been looking at however with his recent form and upcoming fixtures it could be the perfect cocktail of muscle, baby oil & FPL points. He has racked up a cool twenty FPL points in the last three games and considering Wolves don’t have many attacking players left in their entire squad, that is fairly impressive. Now let’s look at some numbers:

Last four Gameweeks:

  • xG: 0.37 xA: 0.33 (Has beed overachveing)
  • xLively: 10.6
  • 1 Goal & 2 Assists
  • 70 Touches in the final third
  • 12 Penalty area touches
  • 7 Goal Attempts (4 In the box)
  • 36 Mins per attempt
  • 5 Chances created (1 Big chance)

As you can see Adama has been overachieving on his underlying stats. However, he does pass the eye test at the moment and always looked very lively. Now Wolves do not have any attacking/creative players left available in the squad. However, it’s that age-old saying; “is your glass half full or empty?”. You can look at this both ways; the positive is that in the recent week; more play has been going through him and he has been seeing the ball far more. As a caveat to this, you can go down the route of him not having that “inform” striker to finish off his chances.

In conclusion, their fixtures are very attractive and we know that on their day; this Nuno team can go through the gears and play some expansive football, we just haven’t seen it enough this season. Wolves next three games are against Burnley, West Brom & Brighton. Looking at these games, I would normally advise a defender; however, I’m pretty sure everyone already has or is lining up a move for Coady or Semedo (or even Saiss for that matter). So I thought I would sprinkle some spice in the mix and throw in Wolves henchest asset.

Ozan Kabak: £5.0 – 0.6%

Fixture: Newcastle

I am sure some of you were expecting this with the shock news that Nat Phillips has a hamstring injury. I would have gone with Kabak on the wildcard if he was slightly cheaper as I’m sure we all know he is the most nailed Liverpool CB at the moment. Due to the injury to Phillips, I am looking at a straight swap to Kabak. I don’t need to bore you to tears with the Liverpool injury list; however they have been unlucky and Kabak has had to adjust quickly. Let’s look at some numbers:

Last four Gameweeks:

  • 2 Goals conceeded
  • 1 Clean sheet
  • 0 Yellow cards
  • 86% Pass Completion
  • Won 50% of his aerial duels
  • 2 Interceptions
  • 4 Clearences
  • 14 Recoveries

I want to stay clear of tackling the defence of Liverpool because it has been improving gradually. They have been conceding fewer goals while the output has been on the up from the likes of Trent. Liverpool’s fixtures are the best from now until the end of the season, they play Newcastle, Southampton, West Brom, Burnley & Crystal Palace. Those fixtures scream Clean sheets (so we definitely hope). My only concern is that Kabak hasn’t exactly been able to form a partnership with anyone considering the constant injuries to the squad’s defence.

In conclusion, I would seriously be looking at the Liverpool triple up if you haven’t already. Trent is yet to prove value for money and I’m not convinced on his defensive numbers. I will however admit his form has improved drastically. The triple up makes perfect sense until the end of the season and two defenders might be a nice differential considering they have been struggling to score loads of goals.

James Maddison: £7.2 – 5.8%

Fixture: West Brom

James Maddison is back from injury folks and I love it. He has been a real star this season for Leicester and has really been a catalyst for their creative play along with Barnes. I think he comes back in for Perez and Brendan Rodger will continue to play with two strikers which will hopefully boost how valuable Iheanacho will. Let’s look at some numbers:

Last four matches:

  • xG: 0.88 xA: 0.17
  • 2 Goals
  • 82 Touches in final third
  • 9 Penalty area touches
  • 15 Goal attempts
  • 3 Chances created (1 Big chance created)
  • 43 passes received in the final third (Getting in attacking positions)

It’s no secret that Maddison is a great asset going forward and will be next season. One thing that I really like about potentially bringing him is the form of Nacho. Kelechi Iheanacho has been getting into some classic poacher positions and we all know Maddison can turn creator just as easy as he can turn scorer.

In conclusion, with Leicester’s fixtures, It would not surprise me if we saw his ownership rise over the next few weeks. In his next four Gameweeks, Leicester plays West Brom, Crystal Palace, Southampton & Newcastle. I wouldn’t say no to the triple up and a Defender, Midfielder & Attacker wouldn’t look out of place in people’s teams. Playing devil’s advocate here they have dipped in form lately at a vital part of the season, however, with Maddison back this may spearhead them to finish strong.

Leandro Trossard: £5.7 – 2.4%

Fixture: Sheffield United

Leandro popped up in my differentials thread previously when we first launched The FPL Way and here he is again. In a Brighton team that has been struggling for goals and that spark all season, he has been the only one to really turn it up a notch and make the difference. Let’s look at some numbers:

  • xG: 0.29 xA: 0.43
  • 1 Goal & 1 Assist
  • 65 Touches in the final third.
  • 11 Penalty area touches
  • 6 Goal Attempts (3 In the box)
  • 38 Mins per attempt
  • 4 Chances created

Now you’re probably wondering why I would include a Brighton player with their form this season. however, their next 3 fixtures look tasty. They are playing Sheffield United, Leeds & Wolves. Brighton’s goals scored per game (1.1) slightly outweigh their goals conceded per game (1.2) hence why I have suggested an attacker for these next fixtures. Let’s remember though, Sheffield United have now officially been relegated from the Premier League. Sometimes this takes away the pressure, but Brighton is still fighting to stay in the league themselves. This means they’re going to be fighting for every chance they can get. Leeds though, leave a load of space behind and have scored a lot of goals. With that in mind, they have conceded just as many.

In conclusion, I know this is just a punt so it is not something I’m considering for my team exactly. As you saw in the intro, my template rating is low rather low. I have seen a few people considering him and the last time he popped up as an option; people even threw the captaincy on him, so he has the potential to deliver big time.

Well, this concludes this weeks differential article for Gameweek 33. Thank you for reading and follow me on Twitter @FPLCasuals for more FPL related content.


Differential Picks For Gameweek 32

Juicy Differentials For Gameweek 32:




Today I will be looking at some interesting differentials for Gameweek 32! I wanted to look at some players that are maybe getting overlooked at the moment & also some that may be well known, however not highly owned. I have chosen five players to look at, all with nice fixtures for Gameweek 32 (and beyond if you were planning to keep them long term).

I enjoy looking into differentials personally, as I feel my rank needs improving and I like the idea of jumping on a player before they are doing well and become heavily owned. I feel the fixture swing that happened last week gives players like me a chance to gain rank by moving away from the “template” team by transferring in some players with lower ownership.

Lastly, I’d like to note that these figures & stats are all taken from the last 4 Gameweeks. Now, let’s jump into some of the picks!

Lucas Moura: £6.6 – 2.3%

Fixtures: Everton & Southampton

First off ladies and gents, I present to you Lucas Moura. Now, some of you may be thinking: “I’ve already got Kane & Son’. Managers with those two might be right to not be looking at Lucas Moura as an option, but for those who are priced out of Kane & Son then this could be a great budget option for you to consider. Let’s look at some of his numbers:

Last Four Gameweeks:

  • xG:0.06 xA: 0.52 
  • 3 Assists 
  • 47 Mins per chance created
  • 7 chances created (2 big chances)
  • 85 touches in final 3rd of the pitch (6 in the box)
  • 9 Corners taken

One of the main reasons I wanted to put Lucas Moura in here is because a Tottenham player is the obvious choice considering their Double Gameweek coming up. You can also look at a defender, however, we’ve seen that the Tottenham defence can be fairly unreliable. Tottenham have kept only 10 clean sheets all season and when you think about the manager they have (Jose Mourinho) who in the past has been far more defensively capable, you start to wonder if the Tottenham defence is a bit stale at the moment.

In conclusion, Lucas Moura does pass the eye test for me and is usually heavily involved/influential when Tottenham play well. I feel if you’re slightly priced out of transferring in Son, then Moura is a good alternative to cover the Double Gameweek. I’m not saying Lucas Moura can cover Son’s score, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he bagged at least an assist.

Jarrod Bowen: £5.9 – 2.1%

Fixture: Newcastle

First of all, I would just like to bring to your attention that Jarrod Bowen’s xGI over the last four Gameweeks is higher than Jesse Lingard, Marcus Rashford & Diogo Jota. He has been a real dark horse and has definitely flown under the radar of Fantasy Premier League Managers. Let’s have a look at some numbers for Mr Bowen.

Last Four Gameweeks:

  • xG: 1.08 xA: 0.29
  • 3 Goals & 1 Assist
  • 3 Big chances created
  • 8 Goal Attempts
  • 2 Winning Goals
  • 11 Penalty area touches

I really like the idea of doubling up on the West Ham attack. Even without Antonio, they have scored the most goals (9) in the last 4 Gameweeks (this is the most in the league). However, as a caveat to that, West Ham has also conceded 8 goals so I do not really want to go near the defence; we have seen in recent games they keep letting in goals from winning positions.

In conclusion, I think Jarrod Bowen might be my pick of the bunch, especially with the fixtures West Ham have. They probably have the best fixtures of any team and also seem to be flying really high of late. They have been super entertaining to watch and if you’re a little bit like me and are looking to gain rank quickly in the final stretch; strongly consider Jarrod Bowen!

Youri Tielemans: £6.4 – 3.6%

Fixture: West Brom

Youri Tielemans has really impressed me and I’m sure a lot of other people this year. He came to the Premier League with a reputation of a young, super talented player for the future. He came with big boots to fill and at such a young age I wasn’t sure how he would look playing week in week out. However, he has proved that he can certainly hold his own. Let’s have a look at his stats.

Last Four Gameweeks:

  • xG: 0.26 xA: 0.99
  • 1 Assist
  • 10 Chances created
  • 5 Goal attempts (2 in the box)
  • 36 Minute per chance created
  • 7 Penalty area touches
  • 83 Touches in final 3rd

Referring back to a point I made in the Jarrod Bowen discussion, Leicester has great fixtures; both for their defence and attack. In the next four Gameweeks, they play WBA, CRY, SOU & NEW. Another little link between WHU & LEI are that in the last few games they have both scored a lot of goals. In the last four Gameweeks, Leicester rank fourth for goals scored. This again is another reason why the double attack does look to make sense. The 36 mins per chance created stat really does resonate with me the most considering they have probably the most prolific goal scorer in the league right now, meaning hopefully more assists are on the cards.

In conclusion, I feel Tielemans does warrant a serious consideration; even a triple attack might be an option as a super differential tactic, especially when they are scoring on average 1.8 goals per game this season. Watching Tielemans is truly a joy, he has it all… He can run with the ball, beat a man, loves a tackle, picks a great pass & goes box to box.

Alexandre Lacazette: £8.3 – 7.9%

Fixture: Fulham

Alexandre Lacazette is one of those players that you ask me if I wanted him five or six Gameweeks ago, I’d have probably laughed in your face. However, he has been undeniably good over the last few Gameweeks. Arsenal’s form has been fairly average this year but they do still provide entertainment going forward with the likes of Emile Smith-Rowe & Bukayo Saka (even with those two injured and not getting as many minutes they are still managing to score goals). Let’s have a look at some stats.

Last Four Gameweeks:

  • xG: 2.86 xA:0.72
  • 4 Goals & 1 Assist
  • 13 Goal attempts
  • 5 Big chances & Scored 4 of them
  • 6 Shots on target
  • 18 Penalty area touches

Alexandre Lacazette has the second best xG in the league over the last four Gameweeks and is second for goals scored only behind Iheanacho. Another string to the bow of Lacazette is that he is on penalties which is always a nice bonus. If an FPL asset isn’t having a good day at the office (Bruno’s made a season off of this).

In conclusion, I am considering Lacazette as a replacement for Sergio Aguero due to him not looking like he is going to be fit enough to be a strong player in my team. Lacazette does make sense and with FUL, NEW & WBA in the next four, I think he is a sensible option moving forward. However, with his form + Arsenal’s fixtures, he probably won’t be a differential for long.

Nelson Semedo: £5.2 – 2.7%

Fixture: Sheffield United

Eh, where do I start with this guy… I had him all the way up to the deadline in my wildcard team and at the last minute transferred him out to bank funds for the easy transfer of Ferran Torres > Son. He then goes and bags all three bonus points in the next game! However, I had been singing his praises and having watched a lot of La Liga before I knew what Wolves were getting when they signed Semedo. Let’s have a look at some numbers.

Last Four Gameweeks:

  • xG: 0.13 xA: 0.30
  • 16 Tackles (3rd of any Premier League defender)
  • 2 Clean sheets
  • 4 Chances created
  • 2 Goal attempts in the box
  • 19 Recoveries & 12 Clearances
  • 5 Penalty area touches

Nelson Semedo isn’t on my radar anymore due to the fact I have already got Coady, but as I mentioned before I had strongly considered him on my wildcard. In the last few games, I have seen him getting forward more and almost playing as a RW for Wolves due to their injury worries further up the pitch. Semedo has got a better xA than Andy Robertson, Ricardo Pereria & Aaron Cresswell in the last four Gameweeks.

In conclusion, one thing that I took into account when bringing in a Wolves defender is that they are usually a low scoring team and are involved in low scoring games. This means a lot of the bonus points will go to the goalkeeper and defenders. With SHU, BUR, WBA & BHA in the next four, I anticipate at the very least one clean sheet within this four game period.

Thank you for reading and I hope you find this useful!

Follow me on Twitter: @FPLCasuals


Gameweek 31 FPL Differentials

Posted by: @FplWestbrom

Whether you are looking to gain rank, get an edge on mini-league rivals, or just play the game for enjoyment and thrills then look no further than differentials. Whether it be a one-week punt, a low-owned gem, a wildcard wonder, or a maverick move (Benteke Captain) we have you covered. Let’s look firstly at some differential defenders.

Budget Defender (Sub 5.0m): Seamus Coleman (4.8m)

Ownership: 0.7%

Club captain Seamus Coleman (4.8m) impressed last week bagging an assist and a clean sheet in his first double-digit return of the campaign. Also, Everton is a team we want to target as they are still competing for Europe, and have favourable fixtures between now and the end of the season. Those fixtures also include a double game week with Aston Villa plus one.

With many of us going Conor Coady, I suggest going for Coleman instead, as he offers more going forward and has better fixtures in the long term, and crucially he is playing for a team with lots left to play for this season.

Premium Defender (Above 5.0m): Trent Alexander-Arnold (7.3m)

Ownership: 14.0%

Last week Trent bagged only his second double-digit haul of the season. However, in recent weeks his attacking numbers and Liverpool’s defensive numbers have improved. Trent ranks top among defenders for expected goal involvements (2.15) in the last six. While Liverpool’s defence ranks fourth in terms of expected goals conceded (6.08) in the last six. Only bettered by Chelsea, Brighton, and Man United.

Liverpool has probably the kindest run of fixtures between now and the end of the season suggesting attacking and defensive potential for Trent. Alexander-Arnold will also be looking to impress England manager Gareth Southgate to get picked for the Euros.

Overlooked Differential: Matheus Pereira (5.3m)

Ownership: 2.0%

Many FPL managers will look at Matheus Pereira and think “It’s West Brom” and look away. However, I would like to remind you that Pereira has been involved in 52% of West Broms’s goals this year. That is 13 involvements. Matheus has found his best form this year when playing through the middle. And after his brilliant performance against Chelsea at the weekend surely Big Sam will continue to play him through the middle.

With West Brom’s win against Chelsea at the weekend they now have hope of avoiding relegation. And with Big Sam in charge who knows maybe West Brom will shock us all, and if they do I believe Pereira will be instrumental.


One-Week Punt: Ferran Torres (6.9m)

Ownership: 0.8%

Ferran Torres has seldom seen consistent minutes this season. However with him clearly not being in Pep’s best eleven it looks likely he will be preferred in the Premier League. Which is perfect for us as FPL managers.

While Torres may not have shown his quality for Man City all too often this season, he certainly has for Spain scoring two for them in the March internationals. This proves he can score goals and why shouldn’t he against Leeds. A team with the third most expected goals conceded (46.88) this season. Torres could even be worth giving two games since Man City’s priorities lie in other competitions.


Long-Term Pick: James Maddison (7.1m)

Ownership: 4.9%

James Maddison plays for a Leicester side with very favourable upcoming attacking fixtures. Fixtures against West Brom, Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Southampton, and a West Ham side have conceded five goals in their last two games.

With Iheanacho coming into great form that only increases Maddison’s appeal. Madders will also be looking for a spot on Gareth Southgate’s Euro 2021 Squad meaning he has to impress from now until the end of the season.

Low Owned Budget Forwards:

I believe there are four good options in this category and will be ranking them in order of best buy to worst. The four players I have in mind are Iheanacho, Mitrovic, Diagne, and Wood. I will be ranking them at the end based on their stats, security of starts, and goal involvements over eaches last six games.

Playing Time:

1. Diagne

2. Iheanacho

3. Wood

4. Mitrovic

Expected Goals:

1. Diagne

2. Iheanacho

3. Wood

4. Mitrovic

Expected Assists:

1. Iheanacho

2. Diagne

3. Mitrovic

4. Wood

Big Chances:

1. Iheanacho

2. Wood

3. Diagne

4. Mitrovic

Actual Goal Involvements:

1. Iheanacho

2. Wood

3. Diagne

4. Mitrovic


After comparing these four players I see Mitrovic as a blind punt with nothing except his goal against Villa to go off. However, his form for Serbia certainly was impressive and possibly worth consideration. Iheanacho looks like a great pick in great form playing for a side vying for the Champions League. His minutes could be reduced with the reintroduction of Maddison and Barnes however.

Diagne looks like a good pick with all the expected data but few returns, however against Chelsea he did manage a goal and an assist so maybe one to keep an eye on. Wood is playing for a goal-shy Burnley side with not much left to play for. He’s not for me. Anyway here is my final ranking of the four players.


1. Iheanacho

2. Diagne

3. Mitrovic

4. Wood

Maverick Pick: Edinson Cavani (7.8m)

Ownership: 1.8%

Cavani is only owned by a minuscule four managers inside the top 10k. While his recent playing time has been sparse, with Martial out it looks like he could be set to feature more in the team. While his recent stats may not be so impressive I expect him to do well in the coming weeks as Man United look to finish in the top four.

Picking Cavani is definitely for a brave manager but with his proven goal-scoring ability I expect him to do well in the coming weeks.