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The Final Differentials Article of the season! GW38

Gameweek 38 Differentials article, I feel I’ve saved the best until last.

Written by Aiden Smith (@FPLCasuals)

Welcome back, Ladies & Gents. I hope you are doing well, I have mixed feeling about this as it is the final Gamweek of my very first season within the Fantasy Premier League space. On one hand, I’m excited it is over, due to the slight balding on the top of my head whereas on the other its become a routine for me now.

For the final time this season, I will be highlighting some awesome differential picks for you to choose from. These will help you exceed your wildest dreams within your overall rank fantasy or help you champion your mini-league. As you may be aware stats will be taken from the last four games. Hope you enjoy it and good luck with your final Gameweek.

Nicolas Pepe: £7.6 – 1.7%

Fixture: Brighton (H)

I was speaking to someone on Twitter Spaces on deadline day last week & he asked if Pepe was a good shout. I really hope he decided to bring him in off the back of that performance vs CRY. I’ll be bringing Nicolas Pepe in this week as I feel he will be a great differential for the final Gameweek.

  • xG: 0.66 xA: 0.17
  • 3 Goals & 0 Assist
  • 3 Starts 1 Sub On
  • 19 Penalty area touches
  • 6 Goal attempts (6 in the box)
  • 2 chances created
  • 1 Big chance total (1 scored)
  • 126 Touches in the final third

I think against a Brighton team with nothing to play for could be the perfect cocktail for attacking returns. Brighton is notoriously tricky to unlock that’s why I think Pepe gets the nod, His flair and swagger down the right-hand side for Arsenal could be the key to unlocking the seagulls on the final day of the season.

One caveat I’m willing to admit in this analysis is that from Gameweek 19 onwards, Brighton has conceded the second-fewest goals in the league (15) on second to Chelsea. However, with nothing to play for and Arsenals dignity hanging in the balance, I think the reds will be too much for the blues on the final day of the season.

Roberto Firmino: £9.1 – 5%

Fixture: Crystal Palace (H)

I bet you never thought you’d see Bobby included in the differentials article, did you? The blend of fixture & fight for the top four is what has landed him in this write-up. In the last four matches, he seems to have found his shooting boots which have been locked away for 80% of the season.

  • xG: 1.23 xA: 0.30
  • 3 Goals & 1 Assist
  • 3 Starts 1 Sub on
  • 14 Penalty area touches
  • 8 Goal attempts (7 in the box)
  • 3 Big Chances (2 Socred 1 missed)
  • 34 Minutes per attempt
  • 7 Chances created 2 Thorugh balls & 3 Big Chances created
  • 74 Touches in the final third

With Crystal Palace on the horizon, I do feel he is a great pick for this week. Liverpool has started putting some tasty attacking football together so people are looking at the triple up & with Jota injured and very unlikely to feature if you cannot afford Mane or Salah then this is your next best pick.

Roy Hodgson is set to leave CRY at the end of the season and many of their players are out of contract. One last hurrah for old boy Roy + Players who will want to impress potential future employers could see Palace be more attacking and if that happens I can’t see any outcome, they will be picked apart by a hungry Liverpool side itching for Champions League football next season.

Chris Wood: £6.5 – 4.7%

Fixture: Sheffield United (A)

The big New Zealand powerhouse is making an appearance in the final article of the season from me. He has peaked at the perfect time for FPL managers that have had the stones to take the risk on him. The hat-trick sickened me to the stomach with jealousy I didn’t have the great idea the rest of you had.

  • xG: 1.89 xA: 0.25
  • 2 Goals & 0 Assist
  • 4 Starts
  • 19 Penalty area touches
  • 10 Goal attempts (7 in the box)
  • 32 Minutes per attempt
  • 4 Chances created
  • 79 Touches in the final third

I said it before, and ill say it again if we are not targeting Sheffield United this season what is the point. You may as well log out and delete your account. He has been cropping up in the right place at the right time meaning the Kiwi has really started to turn it on for Burnley toward the end of the season.

Sheffield United had conceded 34 goals since Gameweek 19 making them the fourth-worst defence in the league since the halfway point & at the other end of the pitch have only scored 10 goals making them the bluntest attack since Gameweek 19.

Rayan Ait Nouri: £5 – 0.2%

Fixture: Manchester United (H)

You’re probably sat there thinking “Have you gone mental Aiden, a Wolves defender?” Well, you’d be totally right I’ve lost the plot and given up this season therefore welcome to Differential Town. Hear me out once we have looked at some stats.

  • xG: 0.16 xA: 0.31
  • 0 Goals & 0 Assist
  • 9 Penalty area touches
  • 4 Goal attempts (2 in the box)
  • 7 chances created
  • 112 Touches in the final third
  • 45% tackle success rate
  • Loose Ball – Interceptions: 5 – Recoveries: 16 – Clearances: 5

I mean look at those stats? Not bad. Averaging a goal attempt each game and a staggering 7 chances created it’s a shame they don’t have a notable striker to finish these chances off.

To summarize I feel like Man Utd are going to rotate fairly heavily in this game due to the Europa League Final three days after this fixture. Both teams have nothing to play for so in my opinion, this could be a real snooze-fest hence why a punt on a Wolves doesn’t sound too bad after all.

Joe Willock: £4.8 – 2.9%

Fixture: Fulham (A)

Last but certainly not least we feature Joe Willock. He featured last week but not too much detail so I thought id give him more credit and go again considering he scored again last Gameweek.

  • xG: 2.22 xA: 0.11
  • 4 Goals & 0 Assist
  • 3 Starts
  • 15 Penalty area touches
  • 9 Goal attempts (8 in the box)
  • 2 chances created
  • 36 Touches in the final third
  • 30 Minutes per attempt

A recently relegated Fulham with a deflated Scott Parker, combine that with an “inform” Newcastle this could end badly for Scott Parker in my opinion. This season I’ve tried to find a good blend between form & fixtures and this meets that criteria nicely. I did want to go Allan Saint-Maximum however he is a slight doubt for this game.

The FPL Way XV Differential Squad.

Above is our differential picks for this Gameweek. Please keep in mind that this team isn’t essentially how we would go ahead with the Gameweek, it is more a bit of fun to point out some differential picks in certain positions that you could add to your team. We wanted to continue the theme as we have provided you with an FPL Way XV Scout Picks and the Value (budget) squad that we release each week.

I do really hope you enjoyed reading and digesting this article. Good luck in the upcoming Gameweek and hopefully if you decide to go with a pick included in this article that it provides you with a nice green arrow. If you do decide to transfer in one of these players let us know in the comments below and tell us which one went with and how it went.