Tutorials

GW12 Top Two Captaincy Picks

GW12 Top Two Captaincy Picks

@FantasyFootyFix will cover the stats below.

Welcome back to “The FPL Way Captaincy Picks” article where I will be discussing the Top 2 Fantasy Premier League Captain options for the Gameweek ahead; as voted for by the FPL Community captaincy poll on Twitter. I will also be adding the “worthy mentions” player list ahead of the Gameweek. Looking ahead to Gameweek 12, let’s move forward and take a look at that all-important captaincy decision.


View the top captain and vice-captain picks for your chosen Gameweek, overall and for the top 1000 teams.


As you can see above, there was one particular asset that was everyone’s go-to captain of Gameweek 11. Salah was the highest selected captain with 95.4% of managers captaining him in the top 1000 rank. The captaincy statistics across all FPL Managers was a fraction of this with 53.3%.

£12.8m / 70.8%

Mohammed Salah sits in 1st place as your favourite captain with 71% of the vote.

Liverpool’s last game was against West ham and it was a very entertaining game. The Hammers managed to win a super victory over Liverpool to move up to third in the Premier League table and ending the Reds long unbeaten streak. Of course, Mo Salah provided us with a return with one assist but he was fairly quiet throughout the match. Only two shots at goal; both were from inside the box. The Egyptian International has a fantastic Point’s Per Game record, averaging 10.6 points, which is the best in the Fantasy League.


Cristiano Ronaldo – Manchester United

£12.4m / 31.7%

Cristiano Ronaldo sits in 2nd place as your favourite captain with 17% of the vote.

Manchester City eased their way to a 2-0 win against Manchester United in their Premier League clash at Old Trafford. It started off with an own goal from Eric Bailly before Bernardo Silva added a second on the stroke of half-time. It’s fair to say that David de Gea saved The Red Devils from another humiliation against another big rival. Phil Foden clipped an effort off the post and City seem to be back on track; moving two points behind Chelsea at the top of the table.

Ronaldo averages 4.8 fantasy points per game, which is poor from his standards.

Below you will see data for Ronaldo and Salah comparisons for the last four Gameweeks.


Top 7 Candidates Projected Points from GW12-16:


Below you will see the Top 6 Overall Projected Points for the next 6 Gameweeks. As you can see, Mohamed Salah leads Gameweek 12 for the most points (6.8) and with overall projected points of (47.8) which is an overall best. Just below The Egyptian International is Cristiano Ronaldo with a projected score of (6.3), that’s (0.5) less than our top best captain.

Let’s stand out differential’s, Kevin De Bruyne has a projected score of (5.8) which is (0.5) off Ronaldo. The Belgium international will be facing Everton at home. One more differential I do like a punt on is Harry Kane or Son. The England International has a projected score of (5.6) compared to Son’s (5.1)


Attacking Charts:

In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Big Chances Created from GW 1-11:

 

🔴 Salah – 8

⚫️ Ronaldo – 1


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Expected FPL Involvements from GW 1-11:

 

🔴 Salah – 10.8

⚫️ Ronaldo – 4.9


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Minutes Per Shot from GW 1-11:

 

🔴 Salah – 22.5

⚫️ Ronaldo – 23.0


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Goals from Inside Box from GW 1-11:

 

🔴 Salah – 10

⚫️ Ronaldo – 4

In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Expected Goals from GW 1-11:

 

🔴 Salah – 7.0

⚫️ Ronaldo – 4.4


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Goals from GW 1-11:

 

🔴 Salah – 10

⚫️ Ronaldo – 4


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing Shot’s Inside Box from GW 1-11:

 

🔴 Salah – 10

⚫️ Ronaldo – 4


Looking at the data above, Salah is ahead of Ronaldo for the best-attacking stats comparisons. Salah is no doubt proving to be the more consistent asset between the two. We can’t rule out Ronaldo that easy, despite Manchester United’s poor run of form, they are up against Watford (a) who have conceded 24 Big Chances which is the 6th worst in the league. Ronaldo only needs 1 chance for him to score.


Worthy Mention’s:

The table below cover attacking stats from the last 4 Gameweeks:

Michail Antonio (£8.2m / 47.6 %)

It’s been frustrating to watch and see Antonio only returning two goals in his last seven matches. The Jamaican International is due a return and I think the game against Wolverhampton could be the time. West Ham has been very impressive this season, sitting in 3rd place in the league, that’s 3 points behind leading leaders; Chelsea. Antonio has (31) shot’s inside the box which is the 3rd best in the league this season, that’s 6 behind Mo Salah.

Harry Kane (£12.2m / 7.4 %)

The Englishman has had a fantastic International break, 7 goals in his last 2 matches for England. No disrespect to the opponents but we would be expecting England to win at ease. This is a big confidence boost for Harry Kane as his start of the premier league season hasn’t been great, only 1 goal scored in his last 10 matches. I think this will be the time for Kane to start bringing returns to the table, a new manager on board and a good run of fixtures upcoming up.

Joao Cancelo (£6.5m / 28.6%

The Portuguese international has been in top form recently, labelled as a left-back but plays more like a LW/AM. Cancelo has returned 67 Fantasy Points this season, which makes him the highest playing defender in the Fantasy league. The last match was a game against Manchester United where he returned 14 points, 2 assists, 1 clean sheet and 3 bonus points. It’s a differential pick for sure, but I do like the look of this man.


Captain Candidates

Below you will see a table providing attacking data for the last 4 Gameweeks:

The idea is for you to see another view of all the best candidates for this Gameweek by breaking down different attacking stats.

Captain CandidatesGoalsAssist’sMins per Goal Attempt In BoxMins Per xGI
Salah vs Arsenal (h)4427.7122.9
Ronaldo vs Watford (a)1137.9294
Mane vs Arsenal (h)2035.5131.5
Aubameyang vs Liverpool (a)1239.9125.1
Antonio vs Wolves (a)1045176.5
Son vs Leeds (h)10118.3210.1
Kane vs Leeds (h)1190257.1
Foden vs Everton  (h)2132.7165.9
Alexander-Arnold vs Arsenal (h)12334183.5

Top 8 teams for worst Minutes xG Conceded

Below you will see a table providing Minutes xG Conceded data for the last 4 Gameweeks.

TeamsMins / Big Chance ConcededMins / Chance ConcededMins / xG ConcededMins / xG Conceded Non-Pen
Brighton486.664.964.9
Newcastle34.86.148.460.4
Manchester United31.65.746.646.6
Watford386.347.352.5
Aston Villa326.352.358.5
Norwich38.25.848.854.3
Burnley34.45.65555
Everton29.57.154.354.3

Comparing The Top 2 Captains opponents against for the last 4 Gameweeks

In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Big Chances Conceded for opponents:

🟡 Watford – 10

🔴 Arsenal – 7


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most xG Conceded for opponents:

 

🟡 Watford – 8.03

🔴 Arsenal – 4.15


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Minutes Per xG Conceded for opponents:

 

🟡 Watford – 47.3

🔴 Arsenal – 92.8


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Goals Conceded for opponents:

 

🟡 Watford – 9

🔴 Arsenal – 3

 

The four-bar charts I have created shows key Defensive Conceded Stats for the opponents game only, which Highlight’s Watford as the team to target. For Big Chances Conceded (10), they are 6th worst in the league, then we go to Goal’s Conceded (9) which again 4th worst, then you will see Minutes Per xG Goal conceded (47.3), 2nd worst in the League, all fingers are pointing at The Hornets. Looking at the data; this is positive news for Cristiano Ronaldo.


Areas of the Pitch being conceded

TeamsChances Conceded on the Left FlankChances Conceded in the CentreChances Conceded on the Right Flank
Arsenal 383448
Watford 433242

 

Team Defensive xG Conceded:

Below you will see data for the last 4 Gameweeks for Team Defensive xG Conceded:

TeamBig Chances Conceded Goal Attempts ConcededGoal Attempts In The Box ConcededGoal Attempts Outside The Box ConcededGoals ConcededMinutes Per xG ConcededxG Conceded
Arsenal 7422022392.84.15
Watford 10603822947.38.03

 

Arsenal has conceded 13 goals this season, which is the 7th best in the League and 11 of those goals have been from inside the box. The Gunners have conceded 97 shots from inside the box, which is the 8th worst in the league. The data above shows in the last four Gameweeks we have seen some improvement for Arsenal. The Reds are now on an 8 match unbeaten run after losing their first three matches in Gameweek 1,2 and 3. Arteta has managed to stabilise some winning form and in the last 4 Gameweeks, Arsenal is 3rd best in the League for shots inside the box (20) and 3rd best four goals conceded (3). No doubt results have improved and defensively too, next game is Liverpool, not an easy team as they are the best-attacking team in the league so far and data proves this.

We now turn our heads to Watford. It’s been a tough season for The Hornets who have conceded 19 goals all season which is the 4th worst in the league and their expected goals conceded (18.05) is 4th worst in the league. They face Manchester United at home. Unfortunately for Watford, their home record isn’t very promising. Big chances conceded (16), 2nd worst in the league and goals conceded (11), 2nd worst. Manchester United haven’t been in the best of forms recently, they have lost five matches in their last six games. Nevertheless, I think the likes of Man United will get on the scoresheet and Ronaldo is my man to bag a return.


Top 8 teams for worst Minutes xG Conceded

Teams

Mins / Big Chance Conceded Mins / Chance Conceded Mins / xG Conceded

Mins / xG Conceded Non-Pen

Newcastle

34.86.148.4

60.4

Norwich

38.25.848.8

54.3

Manchester United

31.65.746.646.6

Watford

386.347.352.5

Aston Villa

326.352.3

58.5

Brighton

486.664.9

63.9

Burnley

34.45.655

55

Everton

29.57.154.354.3

Fixtures to Target

Liverpool vs Arsenal

Liverpool has won their last five home Premier League matches against Arsenal, netting at least three goals in every win. Since Klopp has taken charge at Liverpool, Arsenal has won just 1 of 11 Premier League games against the Reds (Draw 3 and lost 7). Liverpool is unbeaten in nine Premier League home games (Won 5 and Draw 4), having lost six in a row at Anfield before this.

Arsenal has kept six clean sheets in their last nine Premier League away games, including each of the last three in a row. The Gunners haven’t kept four consecutive away clean sheets in the competition since May 2005.

Mo Salah has been directly involved in nine goals in nine Premier League games against Arsenal (7 goals and 2 assists), while at Anfield for Liverpool he has scored four times and assisted two more in four League appearances against the Gunners.


Watford vs Manchester United

Watford has lost 12 of their 14 Premier League matches against Manchester United (won 2), against no side have they lost more. In the top flight, Manchester United have won 18 of their 26 matches against Watford (draw 4 and Lost 4, a win ratio of 69%. Man United are winless in three Premier League matches against newly-promoted teams, drawing against West Brom, Leeds and Fulham last season.

Watford has conceded at least one goal in each of their last 21 Premier League games, it’s their longest ever run without a clean sheet in the top flight. Watford has conceded 154 fouls in the Premier League this season, at least 26 more than any other side.

Bruno Fernandes has created more chances than any other player in the Premier League this season (37). Indeed, since his debut in the competition, the Portuguese leads the way for both chances created (162) and assists (22), while only Mo Salah (and 55) has been directly involved in more goals than the midfielder.


Summary

Ok, looking at the data I have provided, it comes to a decision where you need to ask yourselves, form over fixtures? Mo Salah has the form, whereas Ronaldo has the fixture. I have said many times in this article, Salah is in the best form of his life right now and I still think despite the difficult fixtures he plays, we can not pick him for the captaincy.

However, Ronaldo has the ability to score against any team in the league and the game against Watford is a tasty one. Manchester United needs to get back into winning ways, so this game for me is the perfect match.

Who will you captain for Gameweek 12?

I’ll leave that to you…

Thank you and all the best in choosing that all-important captaincy pick.