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GW7 Top Three Captaincy Picks

GW7 Top Three Captaincy Picks

@FantasyFootyFix will cover the stats below.

Welcome back to “The FPL Way Captaincy Picks” article where I will be discussing the Top 3 Fantasy Premier League captain options for the Gameweek ahead, as voted for by the FPL Community captaincy poll on Twitter. I will also be adding the “worthy mentions” player list ahead of the Gameweek.

Let’s have a quick reminder on how we did in GW6. Our top 3 most voted assets had decent returns, returning an overall 15 FPL points. Michail Antonio and Mohammed Salah both returned. As for our Number one pick, Cristiano Ronaldo only managed 2 points. Looking ahead to Gameweek 7, we have changed of Top 3 players battling it out for the captaincy. Let’s move forward and take a look at that all-important captaincy decision.


Michail Antonio – West Ham United

£7.9m / 33.5% Owned

1. Michail Antonio sits in 3rd place with 14% of the vote.

Antonio was back from his one-match suspension at the weekend as West Ham travelled to Elland Road which finished off in dramatic style. The Jamaican international scored a late winner in a 2-1 victory. This put’s The Hammer’s in seventh place in the Premier League table, meanwhile Leeds, who remain winless after six games, have dropped into the relegation places and languish in 18th.

Looking into the game itself, Antonio was the man of the match. His link-up play with his fellow forwards ensured West Ham’s attack looked dangerous on every attack, proven by four key passes in attacking areas.

Below is a heat map of Antonio’s all round play, 8 shots, 6 inside the box, which is joint best with Jamie Vardy for Gameweek 6.


Cristiano Ronaldo- Manchester United

£12.7m / 46.6% Owned

2. Cristiano Ronaldo sits in 2nd place with 31% of the vote.

It was a disappointing match for Manchester United where Aston Villa grabbed a late 1-0 victory to win for the first time since 2009. There were raised eyebrows after seeing The Red Devils getting a late penalty and Bruno Fernandes taking it. We all thought it would have been Ronaldo on pens and that might be the case going forward with Bruno’s awful miss.

Looking further into the game, Ronaldo managed just the one shot inside the box and three outside. For the first time since The Portuguese joined United, he wasn’t the busiest player shooting at goal. Three of his teammates were in front for shot attempts, Greenwood had (8) shots with (6) on target, Fernandes (6 – 3) and Pogba (6 – 4).

However, Manchester United was back in action last night as they played Villarreal in their Champions League group stage game. Yet again, The Red Devils were not convincing and were very fortunate to get the 3 points. It was Cristiano Ronaldo who scored the late winner, thanks to Jessie Lingard’s brilliant assist inside the box. Overall Ronaldo spent most of the game struggling to make an impact. Then struck when it counts.

Below you will see a map of Ronaldo’s shot attempts at goal against Aston Villa.


Romelu Lukaku – Chelsea

£11.7m / 33.1%

3. Romelu Lukaku sits in 1st place as your favourite captain with 48% of the vote.

It was Manchester City who was victorious in the GW6 match versus Chelsea, ending 1-0 in a dominant victory. Chelsea attacking game was not on point, very defensive and not causing any threat throughout. Manchester City was particularly good in terms of their pressing style and keeping the ball, it was too much for The Blue’s.

However, this is now Romelu Lukaku’s fourth game in all competitions where he hasn’t returned, averaging just one shot per game.

Below you will see Lukaku’s shots at goal against Manchester City, like I said a very poor game for him and The Blues. Just 12 passes, 21 touches and zero shots, not good enough for a player who’s valued at £11.7m.


Top 3 Candidates Projected Points from GW7-11:

Below you will see the top 3 Overall Projected Points for the next 7 Gameweeks. As you can see Ronaldo leads Gameweek 7 for the most points (6.7), as for our 3rd most voted player, Antonio hits second with (6.3), surprisingly the Twitter Community’s number one captain pick falls to (5.9 points).

Let’s point out some stand out differential’s, Marcus Alonso is projected (5.2) which is (0.7) less than the leading captain. The Spaniard has caught many eyes, he has started a surprising six games out of six, second-best defender in the league with 39 fantasy points, just below Cancelo with 44 points. Looks to be nailed on in that Chelsea team, but I do have my doubts for the long term.

Just below Alonso we have Jamie Vardy, The Englishman has a good track record for starting off the season brightly, he has 40 fantasy points, scoring 5 goals, 1 assist in 6 games. a little low in my opinion with his projected (5.1 points) for Gameweek 7.


Attacking Charts:

In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Big Chances from GW 1-6:

🟢  Ronaldo – 5

🟢  Antonio – 7

🟢  Lukaku- 3


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the FPL Involvements from GW 1-6:

🟢  Ronaldo – 3

🟢  Antonio – 9

🟢  Lukaku- 3


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Expected FPL Involvements from GW 1-6:

🟢  Ronaldo – 6.2

🟢  Antonio – 3.5

🟢  Lukaku- 4.1


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Shots Inside Box from GW 1-6:

🟢  Ronaldo – 13

🟢  Antonio – 21

🟢  Lukaku- 14


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Shots Inside Box from GW 1-6:

🟢  Ronaldo – 3

🟢  Antonio – 5

🟢  Lukaku- 3


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Shots on Target from GW 1-6:

🟢  Ronaldo – 7

🟢  Antonio – 11

🟢  Lukaku- 6


In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Expected Goals from GW 1-6:

🟢  Ronaldo – 3.5

🟢  Antonio – 4.4

🟢  Lukaku- 2.8


Looking at the data above, Antonio is marginally ahead of the two other captaincy candidates. He’s had a brilliant start to the season and I don’t expect it to change any time soon. He was full of confidence in his interview after the match, stating that he will continue to push ahead in the scoring charts. That’s the kind of passion FPL managers wants to hear.

Along with Ronaldo’s numbers, he’s only played three games and his numbers are so encouraging, a big haul I feel is on the horizon. Lukaku may have had a couple of dry spells in regards to his returns, but I do feel we will see a turning point in his next upcoming fixtures.

In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Big Chances Conceded for opponents Away games:

In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most xG Conceded for opponents Away games:

In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the Minutes Per xG Conceded for opponents Away games:

In this graphic you will see a chart comparing the most Goals Conceded for opponents Away games:

The four-bar charts I have created shows key Defensive Conceded Stats for the opponents away games only, which Highlight’s Southampton as the team to target. For Big Chances Conceded (7), they are 6th worst in the league, then we go to Goal’s Conceded (5) which is equal with Everton, then you will see Minutes Per xG Goal conceded (67.8), again all fingers are pointing at The Saints Defence. Looking at the data, this is positive news for Romelu Lukaku after watching Wolves forward Raul Jimenez causing problems and bullying Southampton centre backs, imagine what The Belgium international can do.


Areas of the Pitch being conceded:

Below you will see two tables comparing defensive stats conceded from Gameweek 1-6:

TeamBig Chances ConcededGoal Attempts ConcededGoal Attempts In The Box ConcededGoal Attempts Outside The Box ConcededGoals ConcededMinutes Per xG ConcededxG Conceded
Southampton12744826778.67.38
Everton67335387103.35.50
Brentford10673928588.46.54

 

TeamsChances Conceded on the Left FlankChances Conceded in the CentreChances Conceded on the Right Flank
Southampton201814
Everton191620
Brentford141823

 

There are two tables above that provides data where you can identify areas of the pitch where teams have conceded the most chances. I will start off with Brentford as I think they deserve credit for their strong start of the season, no one would have thought that Brentford would be one of the best teams in the League for chances conceded throughout all areas of the pitch, particularly when they play their away games, the data shows that The Bees have a slightly better record playing away rather than their home ground.

Brentford’s weakest area of the pitch is down their right flank, so for the likes of Benrahma and Antonio who has shown a decent partnership, linking very well and having a good understanding, this could be their game to return. Benrahma has created seven chances for Antonio at West Ham this season, more than any player has created for another in the Premier League this season.

Southampton’s worst area of the pitch is down their left Flank, targeting Kyle Walker-Peters. The Saints have conceded 7 goals in 6 matches, which all 7 have been inside the box. Positive news for the most voted man as it stands, Lukaku. The Belgium international has (14) shots inside the box, (7) on target and his expected goals averages (2.54). Lukaku has scored 9 goals in his 12 Premier League games against Southampton, against no side has he scored more in the competition.

The Jamaican has been involved in more goals than any other player in the league this season (eight), scoring five and assisting three goals in five appearances.


West Ham vs Brentford

Brentford is unbeaten away from home in the Premier League so far, won one and drew two. Brentford has seven different players scoring for them in the Premier League so far this season, excluding own goals. Only Chelsea (10) and Manchester City (9) have had more players find the net.

Both West Ham and Brentford have made three changes to their XI in the Premier League so far this season, fewer than any other side so far.


Manchester United vs Everton

Manchester United scores 2.17 goals when playing at home and Everton scores 1.22 goals when playing away on average. When The Red Devils lead 1-0 at home, they win 73% of their matches. As for Everton, when they lose 1-0 away, they win 0% of their matches.

Manchester United have not lost to Everton in their last 9 home encounters. It’s fair to say that United haven’t had as many clean sheets as they would have liked this season, they have conceded a goal in their last 5 matches.


Chelsea vs Southampton

The Saints have lost none of their last 4 away matches. The average number of goals between Chelsea and Southampton is three. Chelsea is overperforming their expected goals total more than any other Premier League side this season, The Blues have scored 12 goals compared to an xG of 8.4 (3.6) difference. Southampton is underperforming in this regard (-3.1 – 4 goals, 7.1 xG).

No side has scored more first-half goals than Chelsea in the Premier League this season, (6, level with Liverpool). However, Southampton is one of just two sides along with Manchester City yet to concede before half-time this season.


Summary:

Ok, let’s round this up. Who is the best captain for Gameweek 7? The answer isn’t simple and obvious this week, but I do feel it’s going to be ‘make or break’,
getting the captaincy pick right this week is going to be crucial for your team.

The most standout point is that they are worthy shouts for the Armand, despite some of the negatives I have pointed out I see returns in all three. Looking a the data I have provided Southampton is the weakest team to target, which makes Lukaku a standout. He will bully those Saints defenders, just like Jimenez did last week.

Antonio is just a beast, he’s in the best form of his life. Take away is price value amongst the three candidates, he’s the clear standout compared to the attacking stats. So because he’s not valued at £12m, are we being naive in not making him the clear favourite? Because I think if he was valued at that price point we wouldn’t be scratching our heads.

Ronaldo, my favourite player ever. All I’m saying is Manchester United doesn’t look convincing at this moment in time. It will take time for Ronaldo to get used to our playstyle, but what is happening right now, is The Portuguese International is providing those late goals and being in the right place at the right time because of his quality experience, and as a United fan, we need that. Will Ronaldo return this week? he has every chance.

So who will be your captain for Gameweek 7?

I’ll leave that to you. Thank you for reading and all the best with your decision makings.