Gameweek 4 Differential Discussion

Differential Discussion – Gameweek 4

Off the back of an International break, let’s have a talk differentials. I personally think there are some great choices for this gameweek and I’m excited to share my picks. 

At the time of writing this there has been 372,085 wildcards activated. 

Stats: Fantasy Football Fix (@FantasyFootyFix)

Demarai Gray (£5.6) – 6.9%


Demarai Gray is looking like the bargain of the Summer in these early stages. He has played in all three of Everton’s opening fixtures and they have good under Rafa’s management. I’m still not sold on their defensive capabilities however, it is hard to deny their attackers are attractive FPL assets.

This season so far:

  • Goals: 2
  • FPL assists:
  • Attm FPL assists:
  • xG: 0.32 – xA: 0.29
  • Shots: 4
  • Shots on target: 2
  • Touch in opp. box: 11

You can make a case that Gray has been massively overperforming. However, I feel this is heavily relying on stats. You have to take into account the eye test. We have seen players smash the xG numbers across the whole season. One that springs to mind is Son, he has overperformed his xG in recent seasons. The point I’m trying to make is that some players can continue good form and not regress to their mean after three games.

Adama Traore (£6.0) – 2.9%


If this man had decent end product he would be up there with the FPL legends as he always has such high “xLively” and xOA (expected oil applied). He is in a much improved Wolves side under Bruno Lage. I know they haven’t got any points yet however its only a matter of time. 

This season so far: 

  • Goals: 0  
  • FPL assists:
  • Attempted FPL assists:
  • xG: 1.57 – xA: 0.94
  • Shots: 11
  • Shots on target: 3
  • Shots in the box: 7
  • Touch in opp. box: 12

The FPL Twitter community is rife with Adama slander or propaganda when in reality you look at his ownership and it’s still very low. Wolves have a brilliant fixture swing coming up and you will see the Wolves’ assets rise in ownership in the coming days & weeks. Getting on Adama sooner rather than later might be a good way to go.

Emmanuel Dennis (£5.2) – 8.1%


Dennis makes the cut for this week differential picks. He has passed the initial eye test for me and looks like a promising “enabler” if you’re looking to save some cash in the attacking positions. 

So far this season: 

  • Goals: 1   
  • FPL assists:
  • Attm FPL assists:
  • xG: 0.71 – xA: 0.16
  • Shots: 9
  • Shots on target: 3
  • Touch in opp. box: 12

Dennis doesn’t have the best goal scoring record in recent years, however, he is still only 23 years old, meaning there is far more to come from him in the coming season. In an attacking Watford side who really nice fixtures coming up not only this Gameweek but for the next four. 

Sarr is another player people have been eyeing up for these fixtures so Dennis at £1.3m less may be a nice way into the Watford attack for the upcoming fixtures. 

Bukayo Saka (£6.3m) – 7.5%


Bukayo Saka is arguably the best Arsenal asset in the game this year, that’s why he has made it onto the differentials discussion article this week. He has dropped in price meaning that the move is slightly more attractive. 

This season so far:

  • Goals: 0
  • FPL assists: 0
  • Minutes: only 137
  • Attm FPL assists: 2
  • xG: 0.08 – xA: 0.09
  • Shots: 2
  • Shots on target: 1
  • Touch in opp. box: 9

Please keep in mind that Saka has only played 137 minutes this season. He came back late due to the success England had in the Euros. This means he was struggling for match fitness off the back of the International break.

I don’t need to sell you the attributes that Saka possess. He is one of the best young players in the Premier League and in my opinion the best FPL asset for Arsenal this season. Arsenal player better when Saka is on the pitch & when you combine that with a lovely fixture run you can’t go wrong.

Eric Dier (£4.6m) – 3.4%


I never thought Eric Dier would make it onto my list of good differentials however he has. Tottenham have looked very good at the start of this season under Nuno. Spurs have kept three clean sheets in a row and with a nice fixture in Gameweek 4 there aren’t many better picks in defence for this week than a Tottenham defender.

This season so far: 

  • xG Con: 3.73 
  • Goal conceded: 0
  • Recoveries: 4
  • Clearances: 16
  • Blocks: 3
  • Interceptions: 3

Dier looks like a nice pick over the next few Gameweeks due to Sanchez getting injured and Romero in trouble with the law over isolation breaches. I’d be confident that Dier plays over Sanchez mainly due to his experience & less prone to errors.

Thank you for reading this differentials discussion. Good luck to each one of you and hopefully see you back here next week for the next instalment.