Differential Picks For Gameweek 33

Sumptuous Gameweek 33 Differential Picks:


Wow, what a week we have had in the footballing world. First, the news of the Super League and the sacking of Jose Mourinho, talking & even thinking about FPL feels rather odd when there are much bigger fish to fry. However, I’m here to try and resume some normality.

Today I will be exploring some potent picks for Gameweek 33. I wanted to include some players that have a nice fixture this week while also having favourable fixtures in the coming weeks. Just to give you an idea of my current thought process, I had a nice green arrow last week climbing up the FPL ranks so I am now going to be choosing my battles far more carefully when It comes to differentials this week. I am currently sat at 62% on the ‘Template Rating’ on Livefpl.net so my team already includes a fair few interesting players.

Similar to last week, I will be picking five players who I feel will be good to have for this week and for the longer term. My aim for this week is to give you something to think about with your free transfer and hopefully give you an edge over your mini-league rival or increase your overall.

Please note; all stats & figures will be over the last 4 Gameweeks except for one player who has just come back from injury.

Mason Greenwood: £7.0 – 2.9%

Fixture: Leeds United

First up we have Mason Greenwood the Icelandic womanizing wonderkid. He has been in great form recently and with Anthony Martial out injured he has been enjoying greater game time over the last couple. Ole seems to like this kid and he is one of the best finishers I have seen in recent years. Remember towards the end of last season when this geezer was getting FPL managers some serious points? That being said, let’s look at some numbers:

Last Four Gameweeks:

  • xG: 1.59 xA: 0.42
  • 4 Goals & 1 Assist
  • 20 Penalty area touches
  • 49 Mins per goal
  • 4 Big chances (Scored 2)
  • 12 Goal attempts (6 Shots on target)
  • 2 Big chances created (3 In total)

Now, these numbers are even more impressive due to the fact he has started twice in the last four and came on as a sub once. Last week I would have said that he is a slight rotation risk however with the form he’s been in recently I don’t think Ole will be taking him out of the team. I think Greenwood is a good pick moving forward due to playing Leeds in his next fixture and we all know how games v Leeds can go (Like a basketball game). Manchester United’s fixtures until the end of the season are looking nice too, they play Aston Villa, Fulham & Wolves.

In conclusion, I would personally be considering Greenwood if I hadn’t already brought in Edison Cavani who seems more of a rotation risk than Greenwood. One thing to keep in mind is that they have the Europa League to navigate & I wouldn’t be surprised if he was rested so he can play in these games. The young man has a shot accuracy of 50% and he is converting 1/3 shots to goals. Leeds is a great fixture and we all know how much space can be left on the counter against Leeds and they do like to bomb forward.

Adama Traoré: £6.0 – 5.6%

Fixture: Burnley

This is another player I would never have been looking at however with his recent form and upcoming fixtures it could be the perfect cocktail of muscle, baby oil & FPL points. He has racked up a cool twenty FPL points in the last three games and considering Wolves don’t have many attacking players left in their entire squad, that is fairly impressive. Now let’s look at some numbers:

Last four Gameweeks:

  • xG: 0.37 xA: 0.33 (Has beed overachveing)
  • xLively: 10.6
  • 1 Goal & 2 Assists
  • 70 Touches in the final third
  • 12 Penalty area touches
  • 7 Goal Attempts (4 In the box)
  • 36 Mins per attempt
  • 5 Chances created (1 Big chance)

As you can see Adama has been overachieving on his underlying stats. However, he does pass the eye test at the moment and always looked very lively. Now Wolves do not have any attacking/creative players left available in the squad. However, it’s that age-old saying; “is your glass half full or empty?”. You can look at this both ways; the positive is that in the recent week; more play has been going through him and he has been seeing the ball far more. As a caveat to this, you can go down the route of him not having that “inform” striker to finish off his chances.

In conclusion, their fixtures are very attractive and we know that on their day; this Nuno team can go through the gears and play some expansive football, we just haven’t seen it enough this season. Wolves next three games are against Burnley, West Brom & Brighton. Looking at these games, I would normally advise a defender; however, I’m pretty sure everyone already has or is lining up a move for Coady or Semedo (or even Saiss for that matter). So I thought I would sprinkle some spice in the mix and throw in Wolves henchest asset.

Ozan Kabak: £5.0 – 0.6%

Fixture: Newcastle

I am sure some of you were expecting this with the shock news that Nat Phillips has a hamstring injury. I would have gone with Kabak on the wildcard if he was slightly cheaper as I’m sure we all know he is the most nailed Liverpool CB at the moment. Due to the injury to Phillips, I am looking at a straight swap to Kabak. I don’t need to bore you to tears with the Liverpool injury list; however they have been unlucky and Kabak has had to adjust quickly. Let’s look at some numbers:

Last four Gameweeks:

  • 2 Goals conceeded
  • 1 Clean sheet
  • 0 Yellow cards
  • 86% Pass Completion
  • Won 50% of his aerial duels
  • 2 Interceptions
  • 4 Clearences
  • 14 Recoveries

I want to stay clear of tackling the defence of Liverpool because it has been improving gradually. They have been conceding fewer goals while the output has been on the up from the likes of Trent. Liverpool’s fixtures are the best from now until the end of the season, they play Newcastle, Southampton, West Brom, Burnley & Crystal Palace. Those fixtures scream Clean sheets (so we definitely hope). My only concern is that Kabak hasn’t exactly been able to form a partnership with anyone considering the constant injuries to the squad’s defence.

In conclusion, I would seriously be looking at the Liverpool triple up if you haven’t already. Trent is yet to prove value for money and I’m not convinced on his defensive numbers. I will however admit his form has improved drastically. The triple up makes perfect sense until the end of the season and two defenders might be a nice differential considering they have been struggling to score loads of goals.

James Maddison: £7.2 – 5.8%

Fixture: West Brom

James Maddison is back from injury folks and I love it. He has been a real star this season for Leicester and has really been a catalyst for their creative play along with Barnes. I think he comes back in for Perez and Brendan Rodger will continue to play with two strikers which will hopefully boost how valuable Iheanacho will. Let’s look at some numbers:

Last four matches:

  • xG: 0.88 xA: 0.17
  • 2 Goals
  • 82 Touches in final third
  • 9 Penalty area touches
  • 15 Goal attempts
  • 3 Chances created (1 Big chance created)
  • 43 passes received in the final third (Getting in attacking positions)

It’s no secret that Maddison is a great asset going forward and will be next season. One thing that I really like about potentially bringing him is the form of Nacho. Kelechi Iheanacho has been getting into some classic poacher positions and we all know Maddison can turn creator just as easy as he can turn scorer.

In conclusion, with Leicester’s fixtures, It would not surprise me if we saw his ownership rise over the next few weeks. In his next four Gameweeks, Leicester plays West Brom, Crystal Palace, Southampton & Newcastle. I wouldn’t say no to the triple up and a Defender, Midfielder & Attacker wouldn’t look out of place in people’s teams. Playing devil’s advocate here they have dipped in form lately at a vital part of the season, however, with Maddison back this may spearhead them to finish strong.

Leandro Trossard: £5.7 – 2.4%

Fixture: Sheffield United

Leandro popped up in my differentials thread previously when we first launched The FPL Way and here he is again. In a Brighton team that has been struggling for goals and that spark all season, he has been the only one to really turn it up a notch and make the difference. Let’s look at some numbers:

  • xG: 0.29 xA: 0.43
  • 1 Goal & 1 Assist
  • 65 Touches in the final third.
  • 11 Penalty area touches
  • 6 Goal Attempts (3 In the box)
  • 38 Mins per attempt
  • 4 Chances created

Now you’re probably wondering why I would include a Brighton player with their form this season. however, their next 3 fixtures look tasty. They are playing Sheffield United, Leeds & Wolves. Brighton’s goals scored per game (1.1) slightly outweigh their goals conceded per game (1.2) hence why I have suggested an attacker for these next fixtures. Let’s remember though, Sheffield United have now officially been relegated from the Premier League. Sometimes this takes away the pressure, but Brighton is still fighting to stay in the league themselves. This means they’re going to be fighting for every chance they can get. Leeds though, leave a load of space behind and have scored a lot of goals. With that in mind, they have conceded just as many.

In conclusion, I know this is just a punt so it is not something I’m considering for my team exactly. As you saw in the intro, my template rating is low rather low. I have seen a few people considering him and the last time he popped up as an option; people even threw the captaincy on him, so he has the potential to deliver big time.

Well, this concludes this weeks differential article for Gameweek 33. Thank you for reading and follow me on Twitter @FPLCasuals for more FPL related content.